Long-term community shifts driven by local extinction of an iconic foundation species following an extreme marine heatwave.

Gradual ocean warming combined with stronger marine heatwaves (MHWs) can reduce abundances of foundation species that control community structures, biodiversity, and ecosystem functioning. However, few studies have documented long-term succession trajectories following the more extreme events that cause localized extinctions of foundation species. Here, we documented long-term successional changes to marine benthic communities in Pile Bay, New Zealand, following the Tasman 2017/18 MHW, which caused localized extinctions of dominant southern bull kelp ( sp.). Six years on, multiscale annual and seasonal surveys show no sign of recolonization. Instead, the invasive annual kelp (), rapidly colonized areas previously dominated by , followed by large changes to the understory community, as holdfasts and encrusting coralline algae were replaced by coralline turf. Between 3 and 6 years after the total loss of , smaller native fucoids colonized in high densities. Although initially colonized plots throughout 's tidal range, later in the succession only retained dominance in the lower intertidal zone and only in spring. Ultimately, the tidal zone was slowly replaced by alternative foundation species, composed of different canopy-forming brown seaweeds that dominated different intertidal elevations, resulting in a net increase in canopy and understory diversity. This study is a rare example of long-term effects following an extreme MHW that caused extinctions of a locally dominant canopy-former, but these events and their associated dramatic changes to community structures and biodiversity are expected to become increasingly common as MHWs continue to increase in strength, frequency, and duration.