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利用三级医院数据预测 COVID-19 患者的死亡率和重症发展情况:疫苗?重症评分?死亡率评分?

Prediction of mortality and the development of critical illness in the course of COVID-19 with tertiary hospital data: vaccines? Critical illness scores? Mortality scores?

机构信息

Department of Chest Diseases, Faculty of Medicine, Cukurova University, Adana, Turkey.

出版信息

Eur Rev Med Pharmacol Sci. 2023 Jun;27(12):5893-5908. doi: 10.26355/eurrev_202306_32829.

DOI:10.26355/eurrev_202306_32829
PMID:37401327
Abstract

OBJECTIVE

Even though COVID-19 affects some risk groups more severely than others, there are still unknowns concerning the intensive care procedure and death in non-risk categories, making it vital to identify critical sickness and fatality risk factors at this time. The purpose of this study was to look into the efficacy of critical illness and mortality scores, as well as other risk factors in COVID-19.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Two hundred twenty-eight inpatients diagnosed with COVID-19 were included in the study. Sociodemographic, clinical, and laboratory data were recorded and risk calculations were made with the help of web-based patient data-based calculation programs called COVID-GRAM Critical Illness and 4C-Mortality score.

RESULTS

The median age of 228 patients included in the study was 56.5 years, 51.3% of them were males, and ninety-six (42.1%) were unvaccinated. According to the multivariate analysis, the factors affecting the development of critical illness were cough [odds ratio=0.303, 95% CI (0.123,0.749), p=0.010], creatinine [odds ratio=1.542, 95% CI (1.100, 2.161), p=0.012], respiratory rate [odds ratio=1.484, 95% CI (1.302, 1.692), p=0.000], COVID-GRAM Critical Illness Score [odds ratio=3.005, 95% CI (1.288, 7.011), p=0.011]. Factors affecting survival were vaccine status [odds ratio=0.320, 95% CI (0.127,0.802), p=0.015], blood urea nitrogen (BUN) [odds ratio=1.032, 95% CI (1.012, 1.053), p=0.002], respiratory rate [odds ratio=1.173, 95% CI (1.070, 1.285), p=0.001], COVID-GRAM-critical-illness score [odds ratio=2.714, 95% CI (1.123, 6.556), p=0.027].

CONCLUSIONS

The findings suggested that risk assessment might employ risk scoring, such as COVID-GRAM Critical Illness, and that immunization against COVID-19 will reduce the occurrence of mortality.

摘要

目的

尽管 COVID-19 对某些风险群体的影响比其他群体更为严重,但在非风险类别中,关于重症监护程序和死亡的情况仍存在未知因素,因此此时确定重症和死亡的关键风险因素至关重要。本研究旨在探讨重症和死亡率评分以及 COVID-19 中的其他风险因素的效果。

患者和方法

本研究纳入了 228 名确诊为 COVID-19 的住院患者。记录了患者的社会人口学、临床和实验室数据,并借助名为 COVID-GRAM 重症和 4C-死亡率评分的基于网络的患者数据计算程序进行了风险计算。

结果

研究中纳入的 228 名患者的中位年龄为 56.5 岁,其中 51.3%为男性,96 名(42.1%)未接种疫苗。多元分析结果表明,咳嗽(比值比=0.303,95%可信区间(0.123,0.749),p=0.010)、肌酐(比值比=1.542,95%可信区间(1.100,2.161),p=0.012)、呼吸频率(比值比=1.484,95%可信区间(1.302,1.692),p=0.000)、COVID-GRAM 重症评分(比值比=3.005,95%可信区间(1.288,7.011),p=0.011)是影响重症发展的因素。而影响生存的因素为疫苗接种情况(比值比=0.320,95%可信区间(0.127,0.802),p=0.015)、血尿素氮(BUN)(比值比=1.032,95%可信区间(1.012,1.053),p=0.002)、呼吸频率(比值比=1.173,95%可信区间(1.070,1.285),p=0.001)、COVID-GRAM 重症评分(比值比=2.714,95%可信区间(1.123,6.556),p=0.027)。

结论

研究结果表明,风险评估可以采用 COVID-GRAM 重症评分等风险评分方法,COVID-19 疫苗接种可以降低死亡率的发生。

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