Department of Neuroscience, Institute of Medical Science, Istanbul Medipol University, Istanbul, Turkey.
Department of Emergency Medicine, Çorlu State Hospital, Tekirdağ, Turkey.
Ir J Med Sci. 2024 Feb;193(1):469-476. doi: 10.1007/s11845-023-03443-1. Epub 2023 Jul 6.
With the older populations growing each year, high mortality rates make delirium a valuable topic.
We aimed to analyze the parameters that could predict 30 days of mortality of the patients diagnosed in the emergency department (ED) with delirium.
This retrospective study included 85 patients with a diagnosis of delirium. Glasgow prognostic score (GPS), prognostic nutritional index (PNI), and C-reactive protein (CRP)/albumin values of the patients and 30-day mortality rate were computed. The effectiveness of GPS, PNI, and CRP/albumin parameters in predicting 30-day mortality was analyzed.
The findings showed that the optimal cut-off value for albumin as determined by Youden's index in estimation of 30-day mortality was ≤ 36.8 [AUC: 0.830 (95% CI: 0.733-0.903; p < 0.001), with a sensitivity of 85.71% and specificity of 76.36%], while cut-off value for CRP/albumin was > 0.974 [AUC: 0.753 (95% CI: 0.647-0.840; p < 0.001); with a sensitivity of 85.71% and specificity of 70.51%], and cut-off value for PNI was ≤ 39.05 [AUC: 0.850 (95% CI: 0.756-0.918; p < 0.001) sensitivity 71.43% and specificity 92.31%]. Significant effectiveness of the values of GPS (odds ratio (OR) = 6.69; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.69-26.37), PNI (OR = 0.83; 95% CI: 0.74-0.95), albumin (OR = 0.82; 95% CI: 0.71-0.94), and CAD (OR = 10.5; 95% CI: 1.85-59.45) was observed for predicting mortality in univariate regression analysis.
The findings obtained in this study suggest that GPS, PNI, and albumin parameters could be used to guide the clinician in predicting the 30-day mortality of patients diagnosed with delirium.
随着老年人口逐年增加,高死亡率使谵妄成为一个有价值的研究课题。
本研究旨在分析预测急诊科(ED)诊断为谵妄的患者 30 天死亡率的参数。
本回顾性研究纳入了 85 例诊断为谵妄的患者。计算格拉斯哥预后评分(GPS)、预后营养指数(PNI)和 C 反应蛋白(CRP)/白蛋白值以及 30 天死亡率。分析 GPS、PNI 和 CRP/白蛋白参数预测 30 天死亡率的有效性。
研究结果表明,采用 Youden 指数确定的白蛋白最佳截断值预测 30 天死亡率为 ≤ 36.8 [AUC:0.830(95%CI:0.733-0.903;p<0.001),敏感性为 85.71%,特异性为 76.36%],而 CRP/白蛋白的截断值为 > 0.974 [AUC:0.753(95%CI:0.647-0.840;p<0.001);敏感性为 85.71%,特异性为 70.51%],PNI 的截断值为 ≤ 39.05 [AUC:0.850(95%CI:0.756-0.918;p<0.001),敏感性为 71.43%,特异性为 92.31%]。GPS(比值比(OR)=6.69;95%置信区间(CI):1.69-26.37)、PNI(OR=0.83;95%CI:0.74-0.95)、白蛋白(OR=0.82;95%CI:0.71-0.94)和 CAD(OR=10.5;95%CI:1.85-59.45)的数值在单变量回归分析中对死亡率的预测具有显著的有效性。
本研究结果表明,GPS、PNI 和白蛋白参数可用于指导临床医生预测诊断为谵妄的患者 30 天死亡率。