Xiang Meng-Yu, Wang Shen, Lü Lian-Hong, Zhang Nan, Bai Zi-Han
Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China.
Huan Jing Ke Xue. 2023 Jul 8;44(7):3637-3648. doi: 10.13227/j.hjkx.202207256.
Nowadays, China is faced with two strategic tasks:improving ecological environmental quality and realizing carbon neutrality and carbon peaking. Synergy to reduce pollution and carbon emissions has become an inevitable choice for the comprehensive green transition of economic and social development in China. The electric power sector will play an important role in the transition process. Based on different power demand scenarios, a multi-objective model was constructed to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality at a low cost, and the optimal path scheme of carbon emission reduction synergy was obtained. The results showed that under the premise of achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality as scheduled, pollution reduction and carbon reduction had good synergies, and their synergistic control could effectively facilitate the realization of the low-carbon transition. Optimizing the power generation structure of the electric power sector was the key measure to achieving the synergistic effect of pollution reduction and carbon reduction. During the study period, the proportion of thermal power decreased continuously, and the proportion of clean power exceeded 92.5%. The emissions of carbon dioxide and major air pollutants were significantly different under different power demands. Carbon dioxide emissions were most affected by power demand. The peak carbon dioxide emissions under low power demand, medium power demand, and high power demand were 9.416 billion, 10.409 billion, and 10.746 billion t, respectively. The emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide, and particulate matter also showed an increasing trend in the low power demand, medium power demand, and high power demand scenarios. The increase in power demand only increased the pressure of power generation structure adjustment within the electric power sector, without affecting the output and activity level of other sectors, that is, the pressure of emission reduction in the electric power sector caused by power demand did not show the trend of transmission between sectors.
当前，中国面临着两项战略任务：提升生态环境质量以及实现碳中和与碳达峰。协同减少污染和碳排放已成为中国经济社会发展全面绿色转型的必然选择。电力部门将在转型过程中发挥重要作用。基于不同的电力需求情景，构建了一个多目标模型以低成本实现碳达峰和碳中和，并获得了碳排放协同减排的最优路径方案。结果表明，在如期实现碳达峰和碳中和的前提下，污染减排和碳减排具有良好的协同效应，其协同控制能够有效推动低碳转型的实现。优化电力部门的发电结构是实现污染减排和碳减排协同效应的关键措施。在研究期间，火电比例持续下降，清洁能源比例超过92.5%。不同电力需求下二氧化碳和主要大气污染物的排放量存在显著差异。二氧化碳排放受电力需求影响最大。低电力需求、中等电力需求和高电力需求下的二氧化碳排放峰值分别为94.16亿吨、104.09亿吨和107.46亿吨。二氧化硫、氮氧化物和颗粒物的排放也在低电力需求、中等电力需求和高电力需求情景下呈上升趋势。电力需求的增加仅增加了电力部门内部发电结构调整的压力，而不影响其他部门的产出和活动水平，即电力需求导致的电力部门减排压力未呈现部门间传递的趋势。
