Xu Xinran, Rothrock Michael J, Dev Kumar Govindaraj, Mishra Abhinav
Department of Food Science and Technology, College of Agricultural & Environmental Science, University of Georgia, 100 Cedar St., Athens, GA 30602, USA.
Egg Safety and Quality Research Unit, U.S. National Poultry Research Center, Agricultural Research Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Athens, GA 30605, USA.
Foods. 2023 Jun 30;12(13):2559. doi: 10.3390/foods12132559.
Campylobacter has consistently posed a food safety issue in broiler meat. This study aimed to create a quantitative microbial risk assessment model from retail to consumption, designed to evaluate the seasonal risk of campylobacteriosis associated with broiler meat consumption in the United States. To achieve this, data was gathered to build distributions that would enable us to predict the growth of Campylobacter during various stages such as retail storage, transit, and home storage. The model also included potential fluctuations in concentration during food preparation and potential cross-contamination scenarios. A Monte Carlo simulation with 100,000 iterations was used to estimate the risk of infection per serving and the number of infections in the United States by season. In the summer, chicken meat was estimated to have a median risk of infection per serving of 9.22 × 10 and cause an average of about 27,058,680 infections. During the winter months, the median risk of infection per serving was estimated to be 4.06 × 10 and cause an average of about 12,085,638 infections. The risk assessment model provides information about the risk of broiler meat to public health by season. These results will help understand the most important steps to reduce the food safety risks from contaminated chicken products.
弯曲杆菌一直是肉鸡食品安全问题。本研究旨在创建一个从零售到消费的定量微生物风险评估模型，用于评估美国与食用肉鸡相关的弯曲杆菌病季节性风险。为此，收集了数据以建立分布，从而能够预测弯曲杆菌在零售储存、运输和家庭储存等各个阶段的生长情况。该模型还包括食品制备过程中浓度的潜在波动以及潜在的交叉污染情况。通过100,000次迭代的蒙特卡洛模拟来估计每份食品的感染风险以及美国按季节计算的感染人数。在夏季，估计鸡肉每份的感染风险中位数为9.22×10，平均导致约27,058,680例感染。在冬季，每份的感染风险中位数估计为4.06×10，平均导致约12,085,638例感染。该风险评估模型提供了按季节划分的肉鸡对公众健康风险的信息。这些结果将有助于了解降低受污染鸡肉产品食品安全风险的最重要步骤。
