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原发性和继发性事件特征的综合分析:以爱荷华州安全服务巡逻计划的影响和范围为重点。

The integrated analysis of primary and secondary incident characteristics: Focusing on the impact and scope of the safety service patrol program in Iowa.

作者信息

Oh Minsoo, Wood Jonathan, Dong-O'Brien Jing

机构信息

Department of Civil, Construction and Environmental Engineering, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, 50011, USA.

出版信息

Heliyon. 2023 Jun 28;9(7):e17759. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e17759. eCollection 2023 Jul.

Abstract

Secondary incidents are considered a major risk in terms of traffic management due to dangerous ramifications, such as reduced capacity, additional traffic delays, and serious injuries. Therefore, it is necessary to examine what causes a secondary incident to occur after a primary incident and prepare countermeasures to reduce the possible damage to human and property from primary and secondary incidents. In Iowa, a safety service patrol program is being implemented on major highway routes to respond to both types of incident efficiently. However, research on when, where, and under what conditions these incidents occur and how the program can deal with incidents must be conducted to determine the major characteristics of primary and secondary incidents and to estimate the program's performance. Consequently, statistical and spatial analyzes were performed on traffic incidents in a 5-year period (2016-2020) in Iowa. A survival analysis confirmed that the program could decrease the probability of secondary incident occurrences, and 99.9% of secondary incidents occurred within 4 h of the primary incident. Additionally, the binary logistic regression analysis of primary incidents affirmed that a longer incident clearance time and a higher severity of incidents could increase the probability of secondary incidents occurrence. Furthermore, a spatial analysis evaluated that the Iowa DOT safety service patrol program adequately covered areas where primary and secondary incidents are focused. This study is expected to be used to develop countermeasures in both incident cases by identifying the characteristics of secondary and primary incidents in Iowa.

摘要

就交通管理而言,次生事故被视为重大风险,因为其会带来危险后果,如通行能力下降、额外的交通延误和严重伤亡。因此,有必要研究在一次事故发生后导致次生事故发生的原因,并制定对策,以减少一次事故和次生事故对人员和财产可能造成的损害。在爱荷华州,一项安全服务巡逻计划正在主要高速公路上实施,以有效应对这两种事故。然而,必须对这些事故何时、何地以及在何种条件下发生,以及该计划如何应对事故进行研究,以确定一次事故和次生事故的主要特征,并评估该计划的绩效。因此,对爱荷华州2016年至2020年这5年期间的交通事故事进行了统计分析和空间分析。生存分析证实,该计划可以降低次生事故发生的概率,99.9%的次生事故发生在一次事故后的4小时内。此外,对一次事故的二元逻辑回归分析证实,事故清理时间越长和事故严重程度越高,次生事故发生的概率就越高。此外,空间分析评估得出,爱荷华州交通运输部的安全服务巡逻计划充分覆盖了一次事故和次生事故集中发生的区域。预计本研究将通过识别爱荷华州次生事故和一次事故的特征,用于制定这两种事故情况下的对策。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6f5e/10336500/a979dd21b5da/gr1.jpg

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