Hoar S K, Bang K M, Tillett S, Rodriguez M, Cantor K P, Blair A
J Occup Med. 1986 Aug;28(8):704-8. doi: 10.1097/00043764-198608000-00032.
In response to a union request, a cancer screening program was conducted for the Pattern Makers' League of North America. Ten colon cancer cases were detected among the 1,465 white men screened with a flexible sigmoidoscope. The difficulties in obtaining appropriate "expected" numbers were that prevalent detectable preclinical colon cancer is not equivalent to incident disease, and the flexible sigmoidoscope yields results not directly comparable to those of the rigid sigmoidoscope used previously. The "expected" number of cancers was obtained by using an independent estimate of 5 years for the mean duration of the detectable preclinical phase. This implied that the expected number of colon cancer cases should be based on the age-specific incident rates among white men in the next-older 5-year age group and that the annual expected number should be multiplied by five. Therefore, the ten observed cases of colon malignancies represented an approximately threefold increase. For invasive cancer only, there was a slightly less than twofold cancer increase. Fifteen percent of the men had one or more colorectal polyps.
应工会要求，为北美制模工人联盟开展了一项癌症筛查项目。在1465名接受乙状结肠镜检查的白人男性中，检测出10例结肠癌病例。获取合适“预期”数字的困难在于，普遍可检测到的临床前结肠癌并不等同于发病病例，而且乙状结肠镜检查的结果与之前使用的硬式乙状结肠镜检查的结果无法直接比较。通过对可检测到的临床前期平均持续时间独立估计为5年，得出“预期”癌症病例数。这意味着预期的结肠癌病例数应基于下一个年长5岁年龄组白人男性的年龄别发病率，且年预期病例数应乘以5。因此，观察到的10例结肠恶性肿瘤病例代表了大约三倍的增长。仅对于浸润性癌，癌症增长略低于两倍。15%的男性有一个或多个结直肠息肉。
