Department of Gastroenterology, the Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, China.
Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou, China.
Medicine (Baltimore). 2023 Jul 21;102(29):e34399. doi: 10.1097/MD.0000000000034399.
Early identification and intervention of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) are particularly important. This study aimed to construct predictive models for ARDS following severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) by artificial neural networks and logistic regression. The artificial neural networks model was constructed using clinical data from 214 SAP patients. The patient cohort was randomly divided into a training set and a test set, with 149 patients allocated to the training set and 65 patients assigned to the test set. The artificial neural networks and logistic regression models were trained by the training set, and then the performance of both models was evaluated using the test set. The sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV, accuracy, and AUC value of artificial neural networks model were 68.0%, 87.5%, 77.3%, 81.4%, 80.0%, 0.853 ± 0.054 (95% CI: 0.749-0.958). The sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV, accuracy and AUC value of logistic regression model were 48.7%, 85.3%, 65.5%, 74.4%, 72.0%, 0.799 ± 0.045 (95% CI: 0.710-0.888). There were no significant differences between the artificial neural networks and logistic regression models in predictive performance. Bedside Index of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis score, procalcitonin, prothrombin time, and serum calcium were the most important predictive variables in the artificial neural networks model. The discrimination abilities of logistic regression and artificial neural networks models in predicting SAP-related ARDS were similar. It is advisable to choose the model according to the specific research purpose.
早期识别和干预急性呼吸窘迫综合征(ARDS)尤为重要。本研究旨在通过人工神经网络和逻辑回归构建预测严重急性胰腺炎(SAP)后 ARDS 的模型。人工神经网络模型使用 214 例 SAP 患者的临床数据构建。将患者队列随机分为训练集和测试集,其中 149 例患者分配至训练集,65 例患者分配至测试集。通过训练集训练人工神经网络和逻辑回归模型,然后使用测试集评估两种模型的性能。人工神经网络模型的敏感性、特异性、PPV、NPV、准确性和 AUC 值分别为 68.0%、87.5%、77.3%、81.4%、80.0%和 0.853±0.054(95%CI:0.749-0.958)。逻辑回归模型的敏感性、特异性、PPV、NPV、准确性和 AUC 值分别为 48.7%、85.3%、65.5%、74.4%、72.0%和 0.799±0.045(95%CI:0.710-0.888)。两种模型在预测性能上无显著差异。急性胰腺炎床边严重程度指数、降钙素原、凝血酶原时间和血清钙是人工神经网络模型中最重要的预测变量。逻辑回归和人工神经网络模型在预测 SAP 相关 ARDS 方面的判别能力相似。根据具体的研究目的选择模型是明智的。