CAS Key Laboratory of Tropical Forest Ecology, Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Menglun, Mengla, 666303, Yunnan, China.
Center for Mountain Futures, Kunming Institute of Botany, Kunming, 650201, Yunnan, China.
Int J Biometeorol. 2023 Oct;67(10):1569-1579. doi: 10.1007/s00484-023-02515-2. Epub 2023 Jul 31.
Rubber (Hevea brasiliensis) latex production is crucial to the local economy, yet Xishuangbanna's climate is considered sub-optimal for rubber cultivation. The prevalence of the powdery mildew disease (Oidium heveae) in this region has decreased the annual latex yield by 20%. Rubber latex yield is influenced by several factors, including temperature, disease, other biotic conditions, and plantation management. However, the interrelationships and potential influencing networks between rubber latex yield and these factors are rarely quantitatively assessed, and understanding their impacts on latex yield could inform better management practices. To address this gap, we investigated the effects of temperature, phenology, and powdery mildew disease on rubber latex yield in March using observational data on daily rubber latex yield combined with detailed phenology, powdery mildew, and temperature data from 2004 to 2010 in a state farm in the Xishuangbanna, Yunnan, China. We found that the critical influencing periods of daily temperature difference (or diurnal temperature difference) on the rubber latex yield were during Nov 27-Jan 19 and Jan 21-Mar 17. Partial least square regression analysis and variance partitioning analysis were conducted on the 35 phenological variables, eight powdery mildew-related variables, and two climatic variables. The most influential factors were identified as the factors of the daily temperature differences during Jan-Mar, the duration of leaf flushing phenology, and mean and maximum percentage of leaves infected by powdery mildew. Subsequent canonical correlation analysis and linear regression found that temperature difference directly affected the rubber latex yield and indirectly affected the yield through phenology and powdery mildew disease. Raised daily temperature differences from Jan to Mar had the greatest impact, leading to a higher rubber latex yield. Our comprehensive quantitative assessment revealed the relative importance of antecedent daily temperature differences, phenology, and powdery mildew disease as well as their complex interconnections in influencing rubber latex yield. Our findings are essential to future studies on both powdery mildew disease and rubber latex yield, and also develop rubber latex models.
橡胶（巴西橡胶树）乳胶的生产对当地经济至关重要，但西双版纳的气候被认为不利于橡胶种植。该地区白粉病（巴西橡胶树白粉病）的流行使橡胶乳胶的年产量减少了 20%。橡胶乳胶的产量受温度、疾病、其他生物条件和种植园管理等多种因素的影响。然而，很少有定量评估橡胶乳胶产量与这些因素之间的相互关系和潜在影响网络的研究，了解它们对乳胶产量的影响可以为更好的管理实践提供信息。为了解决这一差距，我们利用 2004 年至 2010 年西双版纳州一个国有农场的每日橡胶乳胶产量的观测数据以及详细的物候学、白粉病和温度数据，研究了温度、物候和白粉病对 3 月橡胶乳胶产量的影响。我们发现，日温差（或日温差）对橡胶乳胶产量的关键影响期为 11 月 27 日至 1 月 19 日和 1 月 21 日至 3 月 17 日。对 35 个物候变量、8 个白粉病相关变量和 2 个气候变量进行了偏最小二乘回归分析和方差分解分析。最具影响力的因素被确定为 1 月至 3 月的日温差、叶片展叶物候期的持续时间以及感染白粉病的叶片的平均和最大百分比等因素。随后的典范相关分析和线性回归发现，温度差异直接影响橡胶乳胶产量，通过物候和白粉病间接影响产量。1 月至 3 月日温差的升高影响最大，导致橡胶乳胶产量更高。我们的综合定量评估揭示了前期日温差、物候和白粉病在影响橡胶乳胶产量方面的相对重要性及其相互之间的复杂关系。我们的研究结果对未来白粉病和橡胶乳胶产量的研究以及橡胶乳胶模型的开发都具有重要意义。
