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在超级传播者出现的过程中,社会约束与风险容忍个体差异的相互作用。

The interplay of social constraints and individual variation in risk tolerance in the emergence of superspreaders.

机构信息

Department of Mathematics, The University of Tennessee Knoxville, Knoxville 37996-4519 TN, USA.

Department of NIMBioS, The University of Tennessee Knoxville, Knoxville 37996-4519 TN, USA.

出版信息

J R Soc Interface. 2023 Aug;20(205):20230077. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2023.0077. Epub 2023 Aug 2.

Abstract

Individual host behaviours can drastically impact the spread of infection through a population. Differences in the value individuals place on both socializing with others and avoiding infection have been shown to yield emergent homophily in social networks and thereby shape epidemic outcomes. We build on this understanding to explore how individuals who do not conform to their social surroundings contribute to the propagation of infection during outbreaks. We show how non-conforming individuals, even if they do not directly expose a disproportionate number of other individuals themselves, can become functional superspreaders through an emergent social structure that positions them as the functional links by which infection jumps between otherwise separate communities. Our results can help estimate the potential success of real-world interventions that may be compromised by a small number of non-conformists if their impact is not anticipated, and plan for how best to mitigate their effects on intervention success.

摘要

个体的行为方式会极大地影响传染病在人群中的传播。研究表明,个体在与他人交往和避免感染方面的价值观差异会导致社交网络中出现突现的同质性,从而影响疫情的结果。我们在此基础上探讨了在疫情爆发期间,不遵守社交环境的个体如何助长感染的传播。我们展示了即使非遵从个体本身并没有直接暴露大量其他个体,他们也可以通过一种新兴的社交结构成为功能性超级传播者,这种结构使他们成为感染在原本相互隔离的社区之间跳跃的功能联系。我们的研究结果可以帮助估计现实世界干预措施的潜在成功率,如果不预测少数不遵从者的影响,这些干预措施可能会受到影响,并为如何最大程度地减轻他们对干预措施成功的影响做出规划。

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