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将交通运输部门细节纳入全经济范围模型的见解：以ADAGE可计算一般均衡模型为例。

Insights from Adding Transportation Sector Detail into an Economy-Wide Model: The Case of the ADAGE CGE Model.

作者信息

Cai Yongxia, Woollacott Jared, Beach Robert H, Rafelski Lauren E, Ramig Christopher, Shelby Michael

机构信息

RTI International, 3040 E. Cornwallis Rd., Research Triangle Park, NC 27709.

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20460.

出版信息

Energy Econ. 2023 Jul;123:1-24. doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106710.

DOI:10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106710
PMID:37533480
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10394809/
Abstract

Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models provide valuable insights into economy-wide impacts of anticipated future structural changes in the transportation sector, yet few CGE models offer detailed transportation representations. We use an enhanced Applied Dynamic Analysis of the Global Economy (ADAGE) CGE model to incorporate disaggregated transportation modes and technologies in on-road passenger and freight transportation. We assess the impacts of these inclusions on U.S. transportation patterns, energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Simulating illustrative global oil price cases with and without transportation detail, we find subsector mode disaggregation and technology additions in a CGE model significantly alter the impacts of oil prices on global trade and freight patterns, energy consumption, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We find that: (1) alternative technologies are essential for capturing transportation sector impacts, (2) electrification may reduce emissions with electricity decarbonization, and (3) higher oil prices may hasten electrification.

摘要

可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型为洞察交通运输部门预期的未来结构变化对整个经济的影响提供了有价值的见解，但很少有CGE模型能提供详细的交通运输描述。我们使用一个增强版的全球经济应用动态分析（ADAGE）CGE模型，将分类的运输方式和技术纳入公路客运和货运中。我们评估了这些纳入因素对美国运输模式、能源消耗和温室气体排放的影响。通过模拟有和没有运输细节的典型全球油价案例，我们发现CGE模型中的子部门模式分类和技术添加显著改变了油价对全球贸易和货运模式、能源消耗以及温室气体（GHG）排放的影响。我们发现：（1）替代技术对于捕捉交通运输部门的影响至关重要；（2）随着电力脱碳，电气化可能会减少排放；（3）更高的油价可能会加速电气化。

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