Rajbhandari Salony, Winyuchakrit Pornphimol, Pradhan Bijay Bahadur, Chaichaloempreecha Achiraya, Pita Piti, Limmeechokchai Bundit
Thammasat University Research Unit in Sustainable Energy and Built Environment, Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology, Thammasat University, 99 Moo 18, Km. 41 on Paholyothin Highway, Khlong Luang, Pathum Thani, 12120 Thailand.
Sustain Sci. 2023 Apr 28:1-14. doi: 10.1007/s11625-023-01319-y.
This paper aims at exploring the economy-wide impacts of achieving net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050 in Thailand. This study developed a recursive dynamic Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium (AIM/CGE) model of Thailand for the assessment. The macroeconomic impacts of Thailand's net-zero GHG emission targets by 2050 are analyzed relative to its 2-degree pathway. Results indicate that Thailand should put more effort in GHG mitigation actions to achieve the emissions peak by 2025 and net-zero GHG emissions by 2050. Improvement in energy efficiency; increasing electrification; expanding renewable energy utilization; deploying green hydrogen; bioenergy; carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS); and behavioral changes are the key identified pillars of decarbonization to drive Thailand towards the pathways of net-zero emissions by 2050. Results show that there is a possibility of attaining net-zero GHG emissions by 2050 at the expense of an economic loss for Thailand. The gross domestic product (GDP) loss would be as high as 8.5% in 2050 to attain net-zero emissions. Lower productivity from the energy intensive industries such as petroleum refineries, coal and lignite mining, manufacturing industries, and transport are the key contributing sectors to the GDP losses. The price of carbon mitigation would shoot up to reach USD 734 per tCOeq in 2050 from USD 14 per tCOeq in 2025 to attain net-zero emissions in 2050.
本文旨在探讨泰国到2050年实现温室气体（GHG）净零排放对整个经济的影响。本研究开发了一个泰国的递归动态亚太综合模型/可计算一般均衡（AIM/CGE）模型用于评估。相对于其2℃路径，分析了泰国到2050年净零温室气体排放目标的宏观经济影响。结果表明，泰国应在温室气体减排行动上加大力度，以在2025年实现排放峰值并在2050年实现温室气体净零排放。提高能源效率；增加电气化；扩大可再生能源利用；部署绿色氢能；生物能源；碳捕获、利用与封存（CCUS）；以及行为改变是确定的脱碳关键支柱，可推动泰国迈向2050年净零排放路径。结果表明，泰国有可能以经济损失为代价在2050年实现温室气体净零排放。到2050年实现净零排放时，国内生产总值（GDP）损失将高达8.5%。石油精炼、煤炭和褐煤开采、制造业以及运输等能源密集型行业的生产率下降是造成GDP损失的主要贡献部门。为了在2050年实现净零排放，碳减排成本将从2025年的每吨二氧化碳当量14美元飙升至2050年的每吨二氧化碳当量734美元。
