网络结构的异质性改变了传染病的主要传播模式。

Heterogeneity in network structure switches the dominant transmission mode of infectious diseases.

作者信息

Kollepara Pratyush K, Chisholm Rebecca H, Miller Joel C

机构信息

Department of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, La Trobe University, Plenty Rd and Kingsbury Dr, Melbourne, 3086 VIC, Australia.

Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Grattan St, Melbourne, 3010 VIC, Australia.

出版信息

PNAS Nexus. 2023 Jul 11;2(8):pgad227. doi: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad227. eCollection 2023 Aug.

DOI:10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad227

PMID:37533729

原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10393287/

Abstract

Several recent emerging diseases have exhibited both sexual and nonsexual transmission modes (Ebola, Zika, and mpox). In the recent mpox outbreaks, transmission through sexual contacts appears to be the dominant mode of transmission. Motivated by this, we use an SIR-like model to argue that an initially dominant sexual transmission mode can be overtaken by casual transmission at later stages, even if the basic casual reproduction number is less than one. Our results highlight the risk of intervention designs which are informed only by the early dynamics of the disease.

摘要

最近出现的几种新兴疾病都呈现出性传播和非性传播两种模式（埃博拉、寨卡和猴痘）。在最近的猴痘疫情中，性接触传播似乎是主要传播方式。受此启发，我们使用一个类似SIR的模型来论证，即使基本的非性传播繁殖数小于1，最初占主导的性传播模式在后期也可能被非性传播取代。我们的结果凸显了仅依据疾病早期动态进行干预设计的风险。