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具有非性传播和性传播联合途径的SIR疾病传播数学模型。

Mathematical models of SIR disease spread with combined non-sexual and sexual transmission routes.

作者信息

Miller Joel C

机构信息

Monash University, School of Mathematical Sciences, Melbourne 3800, Australia.

Institute for Disease Modeling, Bellevue, WA, USA.

出版信息

Infect Dis Model. 2017 Jan 11;2(1):35-55. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2016.12.003. eCollection 2017 Feb.

DOI:10.1016/j.idm.2016.12.003
PMID:29928728
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5963332/
Abstract

The emergence of Zika and Ebola demonstrates the importance of understanding the role of sexual transmission in the spread of diseases with a primarily non-sexual transmission route. In this paper, we develop low-dimensional models for how an SIR disease will spread if it transmits through a sexual contact network and some other transmission mechanism, such as direct contact or vectors. We show that the models derived accurately predict the dynamics of simulations in the large population limit, and investigate and final size relations.

摘要

寨卡病毒和埃博拉病毒的出现表明，理解性传播在主要通过非性传播途径传播的疾病扩散中的作用至关重要。在本文中，我们建立了低维模型，以研究如果一种SIR疾病通过性接触网络以及其他一些传播机制（如直接接触或媒介）进行传播，它将如何扩散。我们表明，所推导的模型在大群体极限情况下能够准确预测模拟的动态，并研究了阈值和最终规模关系。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/952e/5963332/491005f5402b/gr12.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/952e/5963332/e1f0a8a4ec3f/gr1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/952e/5963332/f2df8158ce1d/gr2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/952e/5963332/b52bd5fba33d/gr3.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/952e/5963332/2901e02a3e11/gr4.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/952e/5963332/5379f83b5197/gr5.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/952e/5963332/4d53b53dd653/gr6.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/952e/5963332/3dbaa8400154/gr7.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/952e/5963332/112ceb62953b/gr8.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/952e/5963332/5e0a7f84c4d4/gr9.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/952e/5963332/c55a161128f9/gr10.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/952e/5963332/e12becd5753a/gr11.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/952e/5963332/491005f5402b/gr12.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/952e/5963332/e1f0a8a4ec3f/gr1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/952e/5963332/f2df8158ce1d/gr2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/952e/5963332/b52bd5fba33d/gr3.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/952e/5963332/2901e02a3e11/gr4.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/952e/5963332/5379f83b5197/gr5.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/952e/5963332/4d53b53dd653/gr6.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/952e/5963332/3dbaa8400154/gr7.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/952e/5963332/112ceb62953b/gr8.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/952e/5963332/5e0a7f84c4d4/gr9.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/952e/5963332/c55a161128f9/gr10.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/952e/5963332/e12becd5753a/gr11.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/952e/5963332/491005f5402b/gr12.jpg

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