Epidemiology and Modelling Group, Department of Plant Sciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB2 3EA, UK.
National Crops Resources Research Institute, P. O. Box 7084, Kampala, Uganda.
Sci Rep. 2023 Aug 3;13(1):12603. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-38819-x.
The agricultural productivity of smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is severely constrained by pests and pathogens, impacting economic stability and food security. An epidemic of cassava brown streak disease, causing significant yield loss, is spreading rapidly from Uganda into surrounding countries. Based on sparse surveillance data, the epidemic front is reported to be as far west as central DRC, the world's highest per capita consumer, and as far south as Zambia. Future spread threatens production in West Africa including Nigeria, the world's largest producer of cassava. Using innovative methods we develop, parameterise and validate a landscape-scale, stochastic epidemic model capturing the spread of the disease throughout Uganda. The model incorporates real-world management interventions and can be readily extended to make predictions for all 32 major cassava producing countries of SSA, with relevant data, and lays the foundations for a tool capable of informing policy decisions at a national and regional scale.
撒哈拉以南非洲（SSA）的小农农业生产力受到害虫和病原体的严重限制，影响了经济稳定和粮食安全。木薯褐色条斑病的流行正在迅速从乌干达蔓延到周边国家，导致了严重的产量损失。根据稀疏的监测数据，该流行前线据报道已经到达刚果民主共和国（DRC）中部，这是世界上人均木薯消费量最高的地区，以及赞比亚南部。未来的传播可能会威胁到包括尼日利亚在内的西非地区的生产，尼日利亚是世界上最大的木薯生产国。我们使用创新方法，对该疾病在乌干达全境传播的景观尺度随机传染病模型进行了参数化、验证。该模型纳入了现实世界中的管理干预措施，并且可以很容易地扩展到所有 32 个主要的 SSA 木薯生产国，只要有相关数据，这就为一种能够在国家和地区层面提供决策依据的工具奠定了基础。
