Research Department 'Forecasts and Macroeconomic Analyses', Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Regensburger Straße 100, 90478, Nuremberg, Germany.
Chair of Empirical Economics, University of Regensburg, Regensburg, Germany.
BMC Public Health. 2023 Aug 3;23(1):1482. doi: 10.1186/s12889-023-16415-y.
As vaccines for COVID-19 became available, many countries introduced an obligation in 2021 for employees to prove their COVID-19 status at work, known in Germany as the 3G rule (vaccinated, recovered, tested). In view of the controversial debate, there was concern that employees might try to avoid providing mandatory COVID-19 certificates by taking sick leave. The aim of this study was to investigate whether mandatory COVID-19 tests in the workplace led to such an evasive response.
For an empirical panel analysis, we collected data from official sources and combined aggregated health insurance data on sick leave, epidemiological data on laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 infections, and vaccination rates for the German states from September 2021 to January 2022. We used a regional panel data analysis to estimate the impact of the mandatory COVID-19 certificates at the workplace on workers' sick leave. The regional vaccination rate reflected differences in treatment intensity.
This study contributes to the limited evidence on the potential impact of introducing mandatory COVID-19 certificates at the workplace on sickness absence rates. In fact, our results showed that after controlling for infection rates, a one percentage point lower vaccination rate led to a 0.021 percentage point increase in the sickness absence rate when the 3G rule came into effect. This effect was measured with high statistical precision. In addition, in robustness checks, we controlled for a number of other possible influencing factors that may have affected sickness behaviours, such as time-varying labour market situations. However, the results remained robust.
The results of our empirical panel analysis implied that mandatory COVID-19 certificates in the workplace led to evasive responses and to additional days of sick leave of a relevant magnitude. Testing obligations were meant to help contain the epidemic. However, when introducing controversial obligations, it is important to consider evasive responses and to design the rules appropriately and communicate them convincingly.
随着 COVID-19 疫苗的推出，许多国家在 2021 年引入了一项规定，要求员工在工作时证明自己的 COVID-19 状态，在德国称为 3G 规则（接种疫苗、康复、检测）。鉴于有争议的辩论，人们担心员工可能会试图通过请病假来避免提供强制性的 COVID-19 证书。这项研究的目的是调查在工作场所进行强制性 COVID-19 测试是否会导致这种逃避反应。
为了进行实证面板分析，我们从官方来源收集数据，并将汇总的健康保险关于病假的数据、实验室确诊的 COVID-19 感染的流行病学数据以及德国各州的疫苗接种率结合起来，从 2021 年 9 月到 2022 年 1 月。我们使用区域面板数据分析来估计在工作场所实施强制性 COVID-19 证书对工人病假的影响。区域疫苗接种率反映了治疗强度的差异。
这项研究有助于对在工作场所引入强制性 COVID-19 证书对病假率的潜在影响的有限证据进行补充。实际上，我们的结果表明，在控制感染率后，当 3G 规则生效时，疫苗接种率每降低一个百分点，病假率就会增加 0.021 个百分点。这种影响具有很高的统计精度。此外，在稳健性检验中，我们控制了其他一些可能影响病假行为的可能影响因素，例如随时间变化的劳动力市场情况。然而，结果仍然稳健。
我们的实证面板分析结果表明，在工作场所实施强制性 COVID-19 证书导致了逃避反应和相当数量的额外病假。检测义务旨在帮助控制疫情。然而，在引入有争议的义务时，重要的是要考虑逃避反应，并适当设计规则，并令人信服地进行沟通。
