Laboratory for Theory and Mathematical Modeling, Division of Infectious Diseases-Department of Medicine, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta, GA 30912, USA; Department of Mathematics, Augusta University, Georgia, GA 30912, USA.
Department of Entomology, University of California, Davis, CA 95617, USA; Center for the Economics and Demography of Aging, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA.
Math Biosci. 2023 Oct;364:109058. doi: 10.1016/j.mbs.2023.109058. Epub 2023 Aug 2.
From Leonhard Euler to Alfred Lotka and in recent years understanding the stationary process of the human population has been of central interest to scientists. Population reproductive measure NRR (net reproductive rate) has been widely associated with measuring the status of population stationarity and it is also included as one of the measures in the millennium development goals. This article argues how the partition theorem-based approach provides more up-to-date and timely measures to find the status of the population stationarity of a country better than the NRR-based approach. We question the timeliness of the value of NRR in deciding the stationary process of the country. We prove associated theorems on discrete and continuous age distributions and derive measurable functional properties. The partitioning metric captures the underlying age structure dynamic of populations at or near stationarity. As the population growth rates for an ever-increasing number of countries trend towards replacement levels and below, new demographic concepts and metrics are needed to better characterize this emerging global demography.
从莱昂哈德·欧拉(Leonhard Euler)到阿尔弗雷德·洛特卡(Alfred Lotka),近年来,科学家们一直对人类人口的稳定过程感兴趣。人口再生产衡量指标 NRR(净生殖率)广泛用于衡量人口稳定状态,它也是千年发展目标的衡量指标之一。本文认为,基于分区定理的方法比基于 NRR 的方法提供了更及时、更准确的衡量指标,可以更好地确定一个国家的人口稳定状态。我们质疑 NRR 的价值在决定国家的稳定过程中的及时性。我们证明了离散和连续年龄分布的相关定理,并推导出可测函数性质。分区度量捕获了接近稳定状态的人口的潜在年龄结构动态。随着越来越多的国家的人口增长率趋于更替水平及以下,需要新的人口统计概念和衡量指标来更好地描述这种新兴的全球人口结构。