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缩短隔离期和取消室内口罩令对 COVID-19 传播的影响:一种数学建模方法。

The effect of shortening the quarantine period and lifting the indoor mask mandate on the spread of COVID-19: a mathematical modeling approach.

机构信息

Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Korea Science Academy of KAIST, Busan, Republic of Korea.

Department of Mathematical Sciences, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, Ulsan, Republic of Korea.

出版信息

Front Public Health. 2023 Jul 21;11:1166528. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1166528. eCollection 2023.

Abstract

In this paper, we present a mathematical model to assess the impact of reducing the quarantine period and lifting the indoor mask mandate on the spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Korea. The model incorporates important epidemiological parameters, such as transmission rates and mortality rates, to simulate the transmission of the virus under different scenarios. Our findings reveal that the impact of mask wearing fades in the long term, which highlights the crucial role of quarantine in controlling the spread of the disease. In addition, balancing the confirmed cases and costs, the lifting of mandatory indoor mask wearing is cost-effective; however, maintaining the quarantine period remains essential. A relationship between the disease transmission rate and vaccine efficiency was also apparent, with higher transmission rates leading to a greater impact of the vaccine efficiency. Moreover, our findings indicate that a higher disease transmission rate exacerbates the consequences of early quarantine release.

摘要

本文提出了一个数学模型,以评估缩短隔离期和取消室内口罩令对韩国 2019 年冠状病毒病(COVID-19)传播的影响。该模型纳入了重要的流行病学参数,如传播率和死亡率,以模拟不同情景下病毒的传播。我们的研究结果表明,口罩佩戴的影响在长期内逐渐减弱,这凸显了隔离在控制疾病传播方面的关键作用。此外,在平衡确诊病例和成本的情况下,取消室内强制戴口罩是具有成本效益的;然而,保持隔离期仍然至关重要。疾病传播率和疫苗效率之间也存在关系,较高的传播率导致疫苗效率的影响更大。此外,我们的研究结果表明,较高的疾病传播率加剧了早期隔离解除的后果。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1d99/10401846/93ec54c78c86/fpubh-11-1166528-g001.jpg

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