A competing risk nomogram to predict cancer-specific mortality of patients with late-onset colorectal cancer.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to compare the clinical characteristics and survival differences between early-onset colorectal cancer (EOCRC) patients and late-onset colorectal cancer (LOCRC) patients, identify the risk factors for cancer-specific mortality (CSM) in LOCRC patients and construct a mortality risk assessment nomogram.

METHODS

CRC patients diagnosed pathologically between 2010 and 2019 in the SEER database were included and divided into the early-onset group and the late-onset group, and the late-onset group was divided into the training and validation sets. The Fine-Gray competing risk model was applied to analyze the prognostic factors of LOCRC patients and establish a competing risk nomogram for CSM.

RESULTS

There are differences in the distribution of multiple clinical features between the early-onset group and the late-onset group. Age, tumor size, histological type, pathological grading, T stage, N stage, M stage, SEER stage, primary tumor surgery, metastatic lesion surgery, radiotherapy, chemotherapy, neural invasion, and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) were independent influencing factors of the CSM rate in LOCRC patients. The C-index of the prognosis model outweighed 0.8, and the calibration curves fitted the reference line well.

CONCLUSION

The CSM competing risk nomogram for LOCRC patients in this study had acceptable predictive performance that could be applied to the clinic.