He Dongjie, Zhu Siying, Zhao Qianqian, Chang Hao, Li Gaiyan, Shao Qiuju, Zhang Chao, Wu Peiwen
Department of Radiation Oncology, Tangdu Hospital, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Air Force Military Medical University, Xi'an, China.
Department of Otolaryngology, Tangdu Hospital, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Air Force Military Medical University, Xi'an, China.
J Cancer Res Clin Oncol. 2023 Nov;149(15):14071-14080. doi: 10.1007/s00432-023-05224-w. Epub 2023 Aug 7.
Updated epidemiologic and survival data of head and neck adenoid cystic carcinoma (HNACC) are lacking. This retrospective study aimed to clarify the incidence, prevalence, and overall survival (OS) of patients with HNACC and establish relevant nomogram.
Trends in incidence, limited-duration prevalence, and relative survival (RS) rates were evaluated using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, and annual percent change (APC) in rates was calculated using joinpoint regression. Data on age, sex, site, stage, and surgery were used in construction and validation of the nomogram.
The study included 6474 patients; 57.7% were female and 78.6% were white. The age-adjusted incidence rates of HNACC decreased significantly from 0.41 to 0.25 per 100,000 [1975-2018; average annual percent change (AAPC): - 1.37, P < 0.001], which was dominated by the localized stage. The 20-year limited duration prevalence increased from 0.00028% to 0.00262%. The 5- and 10-year RS rates of all HNACC patients were 80.0% and 65.5%, respectively. RS rates in HNACC showed a slight increase over time, with APC values of 0.03 for 5-year (P < 0.05) and 0.13 for 10-year (P < 0.05) RS. A prognostic model was constructed. The C-indices for the training and testing sets were both 0.734. The nomogram's discrimination efficiency was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic curve and had moderate predictive power.
Over the past 40 years, the incidence of HNACC decreased accompanied by slightly improved survival rates. Nomogram was capable of predicting the 5- and 10-year OS rates with moderate accuracy.
目前缺乏头颈部腺样囊性癌（HNACC）的最新流行病学和生存数据。这项回顾性研究旨在明确HNACC患者的发病率、患病率和总生存期（OS），并建立相关列线图。
利用监测、流行病学和最终结果（SEER）数据库的数据评估发病率、限期患病率和相对生存率（RS）的趋势，并使用连接点回归计算发病率的年度百分比变化（APC）。年龄、性别、部位、分期和手术数据用于构建和验证列线图。
该研究纳入6474例患者；57.7%为女性，78.6%为白人。HNACC的年龄调整发病率从每10万人0.41显著降至0.25[1975 - 2018年；平均年度百分比变化（AAPC）：-1.37，P < 0.001]，这主要由局限性分期主导。20年限期患病率从0.00028%增至0.00262%。所有HNACC患者的5年和10年RS率分别为80.0%和65.5%。HNACC的RS率随时间略有上升，5年RS的APC值为0.03（P < 0.05），10年RS的APC值为0.13（P < 0.05）。构建了一个预后模型。训练集和测试集的C指数均为0.734。使用受试者工作特征曲线评估列线图的区分效率，其具有中等预测能力。
在过去40年中，HNACC的发病率下降，生存率略有提高。列线图能够以中等准确度预测5年和10年OS率。
