Epidemiology of and factors associated with overall survival for patients with head and neck adenoid cystic carcinoma.

BACKGROUND

Updated epidemiologic and survival data of head and neck adenoid cystic carcinoma (HNACC) are lacking. This retrospective study aimed to clarify the incidence, prevalence, and overall survival (OS) of patients with HNACC and establish relevant nomogram.

METHODS

Trends in incidence, limited-duration prevalence, and relative survival (RS) rates were evaluated using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, and annual percent change (APC) in rates was calculated using joinpoint regression. Data on age, sex, site, stage, and surgery were used in construction and validation of the nomogram.

RESULTS

The study included 6474 patients; 57.7% were female and 78.6% were white. The age-adjusted incidence rates of HNACC decreased significantly from 0.41 to 0.25 per 100,000 [1975-2018; average annual percent change (AAPC): - 1.37, P < 0.001], which was dominated by the localized stage. The 20-year limited duration prevalence increased from 0.00028% to 0.00262%. The 5- and 10-year RS rates of all HNACC patients were 80.0% and 65.5%, respectively. RS rates in HNACC showed a slight increase over time, with APC values of 0.03 for 5-year (P < 0.05) and 0.13 for 10-year (P < 0.05) RS. A prognostic model was constructed. The C-indices for the training and testing sets were both 0.734. The nomogram's discrimination efficiency was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic curve and had moderate predictive power.

CONCLUSIONS

Over the past 40 years, the incidence of HNACC decreased accompanied by slightly improved survival rates. Nomogram was capable of predicting the 5- and 10-year OS rates with moderate accuracy.