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人类发展指数对全球肥胖患病率的影响:一项空间分析。

The Effect of Human Development Index on Obesity Prevalence at the Global Level: A Spatial Analysis.

作者信息

Shirvani Shiri Maryam, Emamgholipour Sara, Heydari Hassan, Fekri Nazanin, Karami Hassan

机构信息

Department of Health Management and Economics, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.

Department of Economics, School of Management and Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.

出版信息

Iran J Public Health. 2023 Apr;52(4):829-839. doi: 10.18502/ijph.v52i4.12456.

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Obesity is one of the major public health concerns, and its prevalence is increasing worldwide. This study aimed to investigate the effect of human development index on the prevalence of obesity across 152 countries.

METHODS

Country-level data on obesity prevalence and its influencing variables related to 152 countries were obtained during 2000-2019 from several sources. A Spatial Bayesian Hierarchical model was employed in this research, and the analyses were performed using R statistical software (version 3.6.1).

RESULTS

We found a positive relation between HDI and obesity prevalence, in such a way if low HDI countries advance to high HDI countries, the obesity rate is expected to increase significantly by 7.45%. Moreover, the association between obesity prevalence and the percentage of people aged 40-59 (β=0.07), urbanization rate (β=0.11), percentage of internet users (β=0.01), percentage of alcohol users (β=0.16), milk consumption per capita (β=0.15) and Percentage of depression (β=0.58) was significantly positive. Conversely, per capita consumption of fruits and vegetables (β=-0.15), and smoking rate (β=-0.02) was negatively associated with obesity prevalence.

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of obesity is growing across all countries, especially in the countries with high and very high HDI. Therefore, policymakers must also pay attention to the negative effects of development when trying to improve the welfare of society.

摘要

背景

肥胖是主要的公共卫生问题之一,其在全球的患病率正在上升。本研究旨在调查人类发展指数对152个国家肥胖患病率的影响。

方法

2000年至2019年期间,从多个来源获取了152个国家肥胖患病率及其影响变量的国家级数据。本研究采用了空间贝叶斯分层模型,并使用R统计软件(版本3.6.1)进行分析。

结果

我们发现人类发展指数与肥胖患病率之间存在正相关关系,即如果低人类发展指数国家发展为高人类发展指数国家,肥胖率预计将显著上升7.45%。此外,肥胖患病率与40至59岁人群的百分比(β=0.07)、城市化率(β=0.11)、互联网用户百分比(β=0.01)、饮酒者百分比(β=0.16)、人均牛奶消费量(β=0.15)和抑郁症百分比(β=0.58)之间的关联显著为正。相反,人均水果和蔬菜消费量(β=-0.15)以及吸烟率(β=-0.02)与肥胖患病率呈负相关。

结论

所有国家的肥胖患病率都在上升,尤其是在人类发展指数高和非常高的国家。因此,政策制定者在努力改善社会福利时,也必须关注发展带来的负面影响。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3e03/10404321/a62797218eeb/IJPH-52-829-g001a.jpg

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