Grimsley Emily A, Read Meagan D, McGee Michelle Y, Torikashvili Johnathan V, Richmond Noah T, Janjua Haroon M, Kuo Paul C
Department of Surgery, University of South Florida Morsani College of Medicine, Tampa, FL, United States of America.
Surg Open Sci. 2023 Jul 23;14:114-119. doi: 10.1016/j.sopen.2023.07.011. eCollection 2023 Aug.
Over 48,000 people died by firearm in the United States in 2021. Firearm violence has many inciting factors, but the full breadth of associations has not been characterized. We explored several state-level factors including factors not previously studied or insufficiently studied, to determine their association with state firearm-related death rates.
Several state-level factors, including firearm open carry (OC) and concealed carry (CC) laws, state rank, partisan lean, urbanization, poverty rate, anger index, and proportion of college-educated adults, were assessed for association with total firearm-related death rates (TFDR). Secondary outcomes were firearm homicide (FHR) and firearm suicide rates (FSR). Exploratory data analysis with correlation plots and ANOVA was performed. Univariable and multivariable linear regression on the rate of firearm-related deaths was also performed.
All 50 states were included. TFDR and FSR were higher in permitless OC and permitless CC states. FHR did not differ based on OC or CC category. Open carry and CC were eliminated in all three regression models due to a lack of significance. Significant factors for each model were: 1) TFDR - partisan lean, urbanization, poverty rate, and state ranking; 2) FHR - poverty rate; 3) FSR - partisan lean and urbanization.
Neither open nor concealed carry is associated with firearm-related death rates when socioeconomic factors are concurrently considered. Factors associated with firearm homicide and suicide differ and will likely require separate interventions to reduce firearm-related deaths.
Neither open carry nor concealed carry law are associated with total firearm-related death rate, but poverty rate, urbanization, partisan lean, and state ranking are associated. When analyzing firearm homicide and suicide rates separately, poverty rate is strongly associated with firearm homicide rate, while urbanization and partisan lean are associated with firearm suicide rate.
2021年，美国有超过4.8万人死于枪支。枪支暴力有许多诱发因素，但这些因素之间的全面关联尚未得到明确描述。我们探讨了几个州层面的因素，包括一些此前未研究或研究不足的因素，以确定它们与该州枪支相关死亡率的关联。
评估了几个州层面的因素，包括枪支公开携带（OC）和隐蔽携带（CC）法律、州排名、党派倾向、城市化、贫困率、愤怒指数以及受过大学教育的成年人比例，以确定它们与总枪支相关死亡率（TFDR）的关联。次要结果是枪支凶杀率（FHR）和枪支自杀率（FSR）。进行了相关性绘图和方差分析的探索性数据分析。还对枪支相关死亡率进行了单变量和多变量线性回归分析。
纳入了所有50个州。在无许可公开携带和无许可隐蔽携带的州，TFDR和FSR更高。FHR在公开携带或隐蔽携带类别方面没有差异。由于缺乏显著性，公开携带和隐蔽携带在所有三个回归模型中均被剔除。每个模型的显著因素分别为：1）TFDR - 党派倾向、城市化、贫困率和州排名；2）FHR - 贫困率；3）FSR - 党派倾向和城市化。
当同时考虑社会经济因素时，公开携带和隐蔽携带均与枪支相关死亡率无关。与枪支凶杀和自杀相关的因素不同，可能需要分别采取干预措施以降低枪支相关死亡人数。
公开携带和隐蔽携带法律均与总枪支相关死亡率无关，但贫困率、城市化、党派倾向和州排名与之相关。在分别分析枪支凶杀率和自杀率时，贫困率与枪支凶杀率密切相关，而城市化和党派倾向与枪支自杀率相关。
