University of California, Irvine, Department of Surgery, Division of Trauma, Burns and Surgical Critical Care, Orange, CA, USA.
University of Southern California, Department of Surgery, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
Am J Surg. 2023 Aug;226(2):197-201. doi: 10.1016/j.amjsurg.2023.03.028. Epub 2023 Apr 6.
Mass shootings represent a significant problem in the United States (US). This study aimed to examine trends in mass shootings in the US over time.
Retrospective mass shooting data (1/2013-12/2021) were collected from the Gun Violence Archive. A scatterplot was constructed showing predicted (extrapolated from 2013 to 2019) versus actual total mass shootings in 2020 and 2021. Multivariate linear regressions were performed to evaluate trends in mass shootings over time, associated with gun law strength.
Mass shooting incidents, injuries, and deaths in 2020 and 2021 exceeded extrapolations from previous years. When comparing 2019 to 2020, stronger gun laws were associated with decreased monthly mass shooting deaths. For these same strong gun law states, monthly mass shooting deaths decreased when comparing 2019 to 2021 and comparing 2020 to 2021.
US mass shootings have increased over the past decade. Stronger gun laws appear associated with fewer monthly mass shooting-related deaths. Firearm-related legislation may at least partially, curtail the worsening of this substantial "American problem" of mass shootings.
大规模枪击事件在美国（美国）是一个重大问题。本研究旨在研究美国大规模枪击事件随时间的趋势。
从枪支暴力档案中收集了回顾性大规模枪击数据（2013 年 1 月至 2021 年 12 月）。绘制了一个散点图，显示了 2020 年和 2021 年实际总大规模枪击事件的预测（从 2013 年外推）。进行了多元线性回归分析，以评估随时间推移的大规模枪击事件趋势，以及与枪支法律强度的关联。
2020 年和 2021 年的大规模枪击事件、受伤和死亡人数超过了前几年的预测。与 2019 年相比，2020 年枪支法律更强的州与每月大规模枪击死亡人数减少相关。对于这些同样拥有强大枪支法律的州，与 2019 年相比，2021 年每月大规模枪击死亡人数减少，与 2020 年相比，2021 年每月大规模枪击死亡人数减少。
美国的大规模枪击事件在过去十年中有所增加。更强的枪支法律似乎与每月大规模枪击相关死亡人数减少有关。枪支相关立法至少在一定程度上可以遏制这种严重的“美国问题”即大规模枪击事件的恶化。
