School of Urban Economics and Management, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing, 100044, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Sep;30(42):96019-96039. doi: 10.1007/s11356-023-29168-3. Epub 2023 Aug 10.
As the issue of global climate change caused by carbon emissions is of great concern, China has proposed achieving its achieve carbon peak goal by 2030. Building carbon emissions account for approximately 50% of China's total carbon emissions. It is crucial to study the time and values of building carbon peaks. In this paper, based on a system dynamics model, logarithmic mean Divisia index model and Monte Carlo simulation, we predict the building carbon peak in China. The following conclusions are obtained: 1) in the baseline scenario, China's building carbon emissions will peak at 5,427 million tons in 2027. In the high-speed development scenario, China's building carbon emissions will peak at 6,298 million tons in 2032. In the coordinated development scenario, the green development scenario, the low-carbon development scenario, and the low-speed development scenario, the peak occurs in 2030 at 5,972 million tons, 5,991 million tons, 5,657 million tons, and 6,329 million tons, respectively. 2) According to the comprehensive simulation, China's building carbon emissions will reach the peak in 2030, with an 80% probability of reaching 5,729-6,171 million tons.
由于碳排放引起的全球气候变化问题备受关注，中国提出力争 2030 年前实现碳达峰。建筑碳排放约占中国碳排放总量的 50%。研究建筑碳排放峰值的时间和数值至关重要。本文基于系统动力学模型、对数平均迪氏指数模型和蒙特卡罗模拟，对中国建筑碳峰值进行预测。得到如下结论：1）在基准情景下，中国建筑碳排放量将于 2027 年达到 54.27 亿吨峰值；在高速发展情景下，中国建筑碳排放量将于 2032 年达到 62.98 亿吨峰值；在协调发展情景、绿色发展情景、低碳发展情景和低速发展情景下，峰值分别出现在 2030 年，为 59.72 亿吨、59.91 亿吨、56.57 亿吨和 63.29 亿吨。2）综合模拟结果表明，中国建筑碳排放量将在 2030 年达到峰值，达到峰值的概率为 80%，峰值数值在 57.29 亿至 61.71 亿吨之间。
