Carlino Angelo, Wildemeersch Matthias, Chawanda Celray James, Giuliani Matteo, Sterl Sebastian, Thiery Wim, van Griensven Ann, Castelletti Andrea
Department of Electronics, Information, and Bioengineering, Politecnico di Milano, Milano, Italy.
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Vienna, Austria.
Science. 2023 Aug 11;381(6658):eadf5848. doi: 10.1126/science.adf5848.
Across continental Africa, more than 300 new hydropower projects are under consideration to meet the future energy demand that is expected based on the growing population and increasing energy access. Yet large uncertainties associated with hydroclimatic and socioeconomic changes challenge hydropower planning. In this work, we show that only 40 to 68% of the candidate hydropower capacity in Africa is economically attractive. By analyzing the African energy systems' development from 2020 to 2050 for different scenarios of energy demand, land-use change, and climate impacts on water availability, we find that wind and solar outcompete hydropower by 2030. An additional 1.8 to 4% increase in annual continental investment ensures reliability against future hydroclimatic variability. However, cooperation between countries is needed to overcome the divergent spatial distribution of investment costs and potential energy deficits.
在整个非洲大陆，有300多个新的水电项目正在考虑之中，以满足基于人口增长和能源获取增加而预期的未来能源需求。然而，与水文气候和社会经济变化相关的巨大不确定性给水电规划带来了挑战。在这项研究中，我们表明非洲候选水电装机容量中只有40%至68%在经济上具有吸引力。通过分析2020年至2050年非洲能源系统在不同能源需求、土地利用变化以及气候对水资源可用性影响情景下的发展情况，我们发现到2030年风能和太阳能将超过水电。每年大陆投资额外增加1.8%至4%可确保抵御未来水文气候变率的可靠性。然而，需要各国之间开展合作，以克服投资成本空间分布差异和潜在能源短缺问题。
