Zheng Dongsheng, Yan Xizhe, Tong Dan, Davis Steven J, Caldeira Ken, Lin Yuanyuan, Guo Yaqin, Li Jingyun, Wang Peng, Ping Liying, Feng Shijie, Liu Yang, Cheng Jing, Chen Deliang, He Kebin, Zhang Qiang
Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
Nature. 2025 Jul;643(8074):1263-1270. doi: 10.1038/s41586-025-09266-7. Epub 2025 Jun 18.
Climate change may amplify the frequency and severity of supply-demand mismatches in future power systems with high shares of wind and solar energy. Here we use a dispatch optimization model to assess potential increases in hourly costs associated with the climate-intensified gaps under fixed, high penetrations of wind and solar energy generation. We further explore various strategies to enhance system resilience in the face of future climate change. We find that extreme periods-defined as hours in the upper decile of hourly costs (that is, the most costly 10% of hours)-are likely to become more costly in the future in most countries, mainly because of the increased need for investments in flexible energy capacity. For example, under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP1-2.6 scenario, 47 countries that together account for approximately 43.5% of global future electricity generation are projected to experience more than a 5% increase in average hourly costs during extreme periods, with the largest reaching up to 23.7%. The risk of rising costs could be substantially mitigated through tailored, country-specific strategies involving the coordinated implementation of multiple measures to address supply-demand imbalances and enhance system flexibility. Our findings provide important insights for building future climate-resilient power systems while reducing system costs.
气候变化可能会加剧未来风能和太阳能占比高的电力系统中供需不匹配的频率和严重程度。在此，我们使用一种调度优化模型来评估在风能和太阳能发电固定的高渗透率情况下，与气候加剧的缺口相关的每小时成本的潜在增加。我们进一步探索各种策略，以增强面对未来气候变化时的系统弹性。我们发现，极端时期（定义为每小时成本处于上十分位数的小时数，即成本最高的10%的小时数）在未来大多数国家可能会变得成本更高，主要是因为对灵活能源容量投资的需求增加。例如，在共享社会经济路径SSP1-2.6情景下，占全球未来发电量约43.5%的47个国家预计在极端时期平均每小时成本将增加超过5%，增幅最大可达23.7%。通过涉及协调实施多项措施以解决供需不平衡并增强系统灵活性的针对性国别策略，成本上升的风险可大幅降低。我们的研究结果为建设未来气候适应型电力系统同时降低系统成本提供了重要见解。
