Zou Hui, Chen Bingrui, Zhang Boyan, Zhou Xinyu, Zhang Xiyuan, Zhang Xinxin, Wang Jianwei
Heilongjiang Research Center of Genuine Wild Medicinal Materials Germplasm Resources, School of Life Sciences and Technology, Harbin Normal University, Harbin, China.
College of Basic Medicine, Heilongjiang University of Chinese Medicine, Harbin, China.
Front Plant Sci. 2023 Jul 26;14:1184556. doi: 10.3389/fpls.2023.1184556. eCollection 2023.
Human activities and climate change have significantly impacted the quantity and sustainable utilization of medicinal plants. Kitagawa, a high-quality original species of Gentianae Radix et Rhizoma, has significant medicinal value. However, wild resources have experienced a sharp decline due to human excavation, habitat destruction, and other factors. Consequently, it has been classified as an Endangered (EN) species on the IUCN Red List and is considered a third-level national key-protected medicinal material in China. The effects of climate change on are not yet known in the context of the severe negative impacts of climate change on most species. In this study, an optimized MaxEnt model was used to predict the current and future potential distribution of . In addition, land use data in 1980, 2000, and 2020 were used to calculate habitat quality by InVEST model and landscape fragmentation by the Fragstats model. Finally, using the above-calculated results, the priority protection areas and wild tending areas of were planned in ZONATION software. The results show that the suitable area is mainly distributed in the central part of the Songnen Plain. Bio15, bio03, bio01, and clay content are the environmental variables affecting the distribution. In general, the future potential distribution is expected to show an increasing trend. However, the species is expected to become threatened as carbon emission scenarios and years increase gradually. At worst, the high suitability area is expected to disappear completely under SSP585-2090s. Combined with the t-test, this could be due to pressure from bio01. The migration trends of climate niche centroid are inconsistent and do not all move to higher latitudes under different carbon emission scenarios. Over the past 40 years, habitat quality in the current potential distribution has declined yearly, and natural habitat has gradually fragmented. Existing reserves protect only 9.52% of 's priority conservation area. To avoid extinction risk and increase the practicality of the results, we clarified the hotspot counties of priority protection area gaps and wild tending areas. These results can provide an essential reference and decision basis for effectively protecting under climate change.
人类活动和气候变化对药用植物的数量和可持续利用产生了重大影响。北龙胆作为龙胆的一种优质原种，具有重要的药用价值。然而，由于人类挖掘、栖息地破坏等因素，野生资源急剧减少。因此，它被列入国际自然保护联盟红色名录中的濒危（EN）物种，在中国被列为国家重点三级保护药材。在气候变化对大多数物种造成严重负面影响的背景下，气候变化对北龙胆的影响尚不清楚。在本研究中，使用优化的MaxEnt模型预测北龙胆当前和未来的潜在分布。此外，利用1980年、2000年和2020年的土地利用数据，通过InVEST模型计算栖息地质量，通过Fragstats模型计算景观破碎化程度。最后，利用上述计算结果，在ZONATION软件中规划北龙胆的优先保护区和野生抚育区。结果表明，适宜区主要分布在松嫩平原中部。生物15、生物03、生物01和黏土含量是影响分布的环境变量。总体而言，未来潜在分布预计呈增加趋势。然而，随着碳排放情景和年份的逐渐增加，该物种预计将受到威胁。在最坏的情况下，高适宜区预计在SSP585 - 2090年代将完全消失。结合t检验，这可能是由于生物01的压力所致。在不同碳排放情景下，气候生态位质心的迁移趋势不一致，并非都向高纬度地区移动。在过去40年里，当前潜在分布区的栖息地质量逐年下降，自然栖息地逐渐破碎化。现有保护区仅保护了北龙胆优先保护区的9.52%。为避免灭绝风险并提高结果的实用性，我们明确了优先保护区缺口和野生抚育区的热点县。这些结果可为气候变化下有效保护北龙胆提供重要参考和决策依据。
