Davis Corey S, Joshi Spruha, Rivera Bianca D, Cerdá Magdalena
Department of Population Health, Grossman School of Medicine, New York University Langone, 180 Madison Ave, 4th Floor New York, NY 10016, United States; Network for Public Health Law, 7101 York Avenue South, #270 Edina, MN 55435, United States.
Department of Population Health, Grossman School of Medicine, New York University Langone, 180 Madison Ave, 4th Floor New York, NY 10016, United States.
Int J Drug Policy. 2023 Sep;119:104155. doi: 10.1016/j.drugpo.2023.104155. Epub 2023 Aug 9.
Despite evidence that the U.S. "War on Drugs" is associated with increases in drug-related harm and other negative outcomes, all U.S. states have long criminalized most drug possession. In early 2021, both Oregon and Washington became exceptions to this rule when they fully (Oregon) or partially (Washington) decriminalized possession of small amounts of all drugs.
We obtained arrest data for 2019 to 2021 for intervention states (Oregon and Washington) and control states (Colorado, Idaho, Montana, and Nevada). We calculated monthly rates for arrests overall and for violent crimes, drug possession, equipment possession, non-drug crimes, and a set of low-level crimes termed displaced arrests. Using an interrupted time series analysis, we examined changes in monthly arrest rates after the implementation of policy change in Oregon and Washington compared to control states.
In Oregon, there were 3 fewer drug possession arrests per 100,000 in the month after the policy change; the rate decreased throughout the post-implementation period. In Washington, there were almost 5 fewer drug possession arrests per 100,000 in the month following policy change, and the rate remained stable thereafter. Both declines were significantly greater than in comparison states. There were also statistically significant reductions in arrests for possession of drug equipment in Washington and a significant increase in displaced arrests in Oregon. There were no significant changes in overall arrests, non-drug arrests or arrests for violent crime in either state, relative to controls.
This analysis demonstrates that it is possible for state drug decriminalization policies to dramatically reduce arrests for drug possession without increasing arrests for violent crimes, potentially reducing harm to people who use drugs and their communities. Additional research is needed to determine whether these legal reforms were associated with changes in overdose rates and other drug-related harms.
尽管有证据表明美国的“毒品战争”与毒品相关危害及其他负面后果的增加有关，但长期以来美国所有州都将大多数毒品持有行为定为犯罪。2021年初，俄勒冈州和华盛顿州成为这一规则的例外，俄勒冈州完全（对持有少量各类毒品）合法化，华盛顿州部分（对持有少量各类毒品）合法化。
我们获取了2019年至2021年干预州（俄勒冈州和华盛顿州）和对照州（科罗拉多州、爱达荷州、蒙大拿州和内华达州）的逮捕数据。我们计算了总体逮捕率以及暴力犯罪、毒品持有、持有吸毒器具、非毒品犯罪和一组被称为替代逮捕的低级别犯罪的月度逮捕率。使用中断时间序列分析，我们研究了俄勒冈州和华盛顿州实施政策变化后与对照州相比月度逮捕率的变化。
在俄勒冈州，政策变化后的当月每10万人中因持有毒品被捕的人数减少了3人；在实施政策后的整个时期该比率都在下降。在华盛顿州，政策变化后的当月每10万人中因持有毒品被捕的人数减少了近5人，此后该比率保持稳定。这两个州的下降幅度均显著大于对照州。华盛顿州因持有吸毒器具被捕的人数也有统计学意义上的显著减少，俄勒冈州的替代逮捕人数显著增加。相对于对照州，两个州的总体逮捕率、非毒品逮捕率或暴力犯罪逮捕率均无显著变化。
该分析表明，州级毒品合法化政策有可能大幅减少因持有毒品而被捕的人数，同时不增加暴力犯罪的逮捕人数，这可能减少对吸毒者及其社区的危害。需要进一步研究以确定这些法律改革是否与过量用药率及其他毒品相关危害的变化有关。
