Center for Health Emergencies, Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy; Department of Mathematics, University of Trento, Trento, Italy.
Epidemiology Unit, Azienda Unità Sanitaria Locale - IRCCS di Reggio Emilia, Reggio Emilia, Italy.
Epidemics. 2023 Sep;44:100712. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100712. Epub 2023 Aug 3.
Different monitoring and control policies have been implemented in schools to minimize the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Transmission in schools has been hard to quantify due to the large proportion of asymptomatic carriers in young individuals. We applied a Bayesian approach to reconstruct the transmission chains between 284 SARS-CoV-2 infections ascertained during 87 school outbreak investigations conducted between March and April 2021 in Italy. Under the policy of reactive quarantines, we found that 42.5% (95%CrI: 29.5-54.3%) of infections among school attendees were caused by school contacts. The mean number of secondary cases infected at school by a positive individual during in-person education was estimated to be 0.33 (95%CrI: 0.23-0.43), with marked heterogeneity across individuals. Specifically, we estimated that only 26.0% (95%CrI: 17.6-34.1%) of students and school personnel who tested positive during in-person education caused at least one secondary infection at school. Positive individuals who attended school for at least 6 days before being isolated or quarantined infected on average 0.49 (95%CrI: 0.14-0.83) secondary cases. Our findings provide quantitative insights on the contribution of school transmission to the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in young individuals. Identifying positive cases within 5 days after exposure to their infector could reduce onward transmission at school by at least 30%.
不同的监测和控制政策已在学校中实施,以最大程度地减少 SARS-CoV-2 的传播。由于年轻个体中有很大比例的无症状携带者,因此很难量化学校中的传播。我们应用贝叶斯方法来重建 2021 年 3 月至 4 月间在意大利进行的 87 次学校暴发调查中确定的 284 例 SARS-CoV-2 感染之间的传播链。在反应性隔离政策下,我们发现学校学生感染者中有 42.5%(95%CrI:29.5-54.3%)是由学校接触引起的。在面对面教育期间,阳性个体在学校感染的继发性病例数的平均值估计为 0.33(95%CrI:0.23-0.43),个体之间存在明显的异质性。具体而言,我们估计在面对面教育期间检测呈阳性的学生和学校人员中,只有 26.0%(95%CrI:17.6-34.1%)至少会在学校引起一次继发性感染。在被隔离或检疫之前至少在学校上课 6 天的阳性个体平均会感染 0.49(95%CrI:0.14-0.83)例继发性病例。我们的研究结果为学校传播对年轻个体中 SARS-CoV-2 传播的贡献提供了定量见解。在接触感染者后 5 天内发现阳性病例,可以将学校内的传播减少至少 30%。