Signatures of disease progression in knee osteoarthritis: insights from an integrated multi-scale modeling approach, a proof of concept.

Knee osteoarthritis (KOA) is characterized by articular cartilage degeneration. It has been widely accepted that the mechanical joint environment plays a significant role in the onset and progression of this disease. In silico models have been used to study the interplay between mechanical loading and cartilage degeneration, hereby relying mainly on two key mechanoregulatory factors indicative of collagen degradation and proteoglycans depletion. These factors are the strain in collagen fibril direction (SFD) and maximum shear strain (MSS) respectively. In this study, a multi-scale in silico modeling approach was used based on a synergy between musculoskeletal and finite element modeling to evaluate the SFD and MSS. These strains were evaluated during gait based on subject-specific gait analysis data collected at baseline (before a 2-year follow-up) for a healthy and progressive early-stage KOA subject with similar demographics. The results show that both SFD and MSS factors allowed distinguishing between a healthy subject and a KOA subject, showing progression at 2 years follow-up, at the instance of peak contact force as well as during the stance phase of the gait cycle. At the peak of the stance phase, the SFD were found to be more elevated in the KOA patient with the median being 0.82% higher in the lateral and 0.4% higher in the medial compartment of the tibial cartilage compared to the healthy subject. Similarly, for the MSS, the median strains were found to be 3.6% higher in the lateral and 0.7% higher in the medial tibial compartment of the KOA patient compared to the healthy subject. Based on these intersubject SFD and MSS differences, we were additionally able to identify that the tibial compartment of the KOA subject at risk of progression. We confirmed the mechanoregulatory factors as potential biomarkers to discriminate patients at risk of disease progression. Future studies should evaluate the sensitivity of the mechanoregulatory factors calculated based on this multi-scale modeling workflow in larger patient and control cohorts.