Department of Political Science, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN 37203-5721.
Sanford School of Public Policy, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708-0245.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2023 Aug 22;120(34):e2309072120. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2309072120. Epub 2023 Aug 14.
In early 2021, members of Congress cast a series of high-profile roll call votes forcing them to choose between condoning or opposing Donald Trump's efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election. Substantial majorities of House Republicans supported Trump, first by opposing the certification of electoral votes from Arizona and Pennsylvania on January 6th, then by opposing the president's impeachment for inciting the attack on the US Capitol, and then by opposing a bill that would have created a national commission to investigate the events of January 6th. We examine whether the House Republicans who voted to support Trump in 2021 were rewarded or punished in the 2022 congressional midterm elections. We find no evidence that members who supported Trump did better or worse in contested general election races. However, Trump supporters were less likely to lose primary elections, more likely to run unopposed in the general election, more likely to run for higher office, and less likely to retire from politics. Overall, there seem to have been no significant political costs and some significant rewards in 2022 for House Republicans who supported Trump's undemocratic behavior.
2021 年初，国会议员进行了一系列备受瞩目的点名表决，迫使他们在纵容或反对唐纳德·特朗普推翻 2020 年总统选举的努力之间做出选择。大量众议院共和党人支持特朗普，先是在 1 月 6 日反对亚利桑那州和宾夕法尼亚州选举人票的认证，然后反对以煽动袭击美国国会大厦为由对总统进行弹劾，然后反对一项旨在成立一个全国委员会调查 1 月 6 日事件的法案。我们研究了在 2021 年投票支持特朗普的众议院共和党人在 2022 年国会中期选举中是否得到了奖励或惩罚。我们没有发现证据表明支持特朗普的议员在有竞争的大选中表现更好或更差。然而，特朗普的支持者在初选中落败的可能性较小，在大选中更有可能无人竞选，更有可能竞选更高的职位，从政的可能性较小。总的来说，对于在 2022 年支持特朗普的不民主行为的众议院共和党人来说，似乎没有付出重大的政治代价，反而获得了一些重大的回报。
