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三峡库区的区域气候变化及其可能成因。

Regional climate change and possible causes over the Three Gorges Reservoir Area.

作者信息

Wu Xiaojun, Wang Lunche, Cao Qian, Niu Zigeng, Dai Xin

机构信息

Hubei Key Laboratory of Regional Ecology and Environmental Change, School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, China; State Key Laboratory of Biogeology and Environmental Geology, School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, China.

Hubei Key Laboratory of Regional Ecology and Environmental Change, School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, China; State Key Laboratory of Biogeology and Environmental Geology, School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, China; Hubei Luojia Laboratory, Wuhan 430079, China.

出版信息

Sci Total Environ. 2023 Dec 10;903:166263. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166263. Epub 2023 Aug 12.

DOI:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166263
PMID:37579807
Abstract

The Three Gorges Project, the largest hydroelectric project in the world, has attracted widespread attention regarding its impact on regional climate. However, existing studies on the climate effects of the Three Gorges Project construction are not sufficient due to limited data accumulation. In this study, we analyzed the annual and seasonal trend changes in temperature, precipitation, and humidity over the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (TGRA) based on long-term meteorological stations data, remote sensing data, and reanalysis products. Observation minus reanalysis method (OMR) was used to reveal possible impacts of land cover changes on climate changes. Major results indicated that the TGRA experienced an overall warming trend for both annual and seasonal variations, with greater rising trends in the upstream. Except for autumn, the relative humidity of most regions mainly showed significant downward trends, indicating an overall drying trend in the TGRA. There was insignificant change in total precipitation and precipitable water vapor, with the largest variation observed during the summer. Although there were small differences among these datasets, their results of climate changes showed good consistency overall. In addition, the results of OMR indicated that land cover changes mainly had a warming and drying effect on the middle and upper reaches, and a cooling and moistening effect on the lower reaches of the TGRA. This may be due to the impact of land cover changes on the surface energy balance, thus affected temperature and humidity. The study has important reference value for understanding the climate changes in the TGRA and the climate effects brought about by large-scale engineering construction.

摘要

三峡工程是世界上最大的水电工程,其对区域气候的影响已引起广泛关注。然而,由于数据积累有限,目前关于三峡工程建设气候效应的研究尚不充分。在本研究中,我们基于长期气象站数据、遥感数据和再分析产品,分析了三峡库区(TGRA)气温、降水和湿度的年际和季节趋势变化。采用观测减去再分析方法(OMR)来揭示土地覆盖变化对气候变化的可能影响。主要结果表明,三峡库区年际和季节变化均呈现总体变暖趋势,上游地区上升趋势更为明显。除秋季外,大部分地区的相对湿度主要呈显著下降趋势,表明三峡库区总体呈变干趋势。总降水量和可降水量水汽变化不显著,夏季变化最大。虽然这些数据集之间存在细微差异,但它们的气候变化结果总体上显示出良好的一致性。此外,OMR结果表明,土地覆盖变化对三峡库区中上游主要有增温变干作用,对下游有降温增湿作用。这可能是由于土地覆盖变化对地表能量平衡的影响,进而影响了温度和湿度。该研究对于了解三峡库区气候变化以及大型工程建设带来的气候效应具有重要参考价值。

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