School of Economics, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, 555 Liutai Avenue, Wenjiang District, Chengdu, 611130, Sichuan, China.
Sci Rep. 2023 Aug 15;13(1):13258. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-40307-1.
In the course of our observations of the transmission of COVID-19 around the world, we perceived substantial concern about imported cases versus cases of local transmission. This study, therefore, tries to isolate cases due to local transmission (also called community spread) from those due to externally introduced COVID-19 infection, which can be key to understanding the spread pattern of the pandemic. In particular, we offer a probabilistic perspective to estimate the scale of the outbreak at the epicenter of the COVID-19 epidemic with an environmental focus. First, this study proposes a novel explanation of the probability of COVID-19 cases in the local population of the target city, in which the chain of probability is based on the assumption of independent distribution. Then it conducts a spatial statistical analysis on the spread of COVID-19, using two model specifications to identify the spatial dependence, more commonly known as the spillover effect. The results are found to have strong spatial dependence. Finally, it confirms the significance of residential waste in the transmission of COVID-19, which indicates that the fight against COVID-19 requires us to pay close attention to environmental factors. The method shown in this study is critical and has high practical value, because it can be easily applied elsewhere and to other future pandemics.
在我们对全球范围内 COVID-19 传播的观察过程中，我们发现人们对输入病例和本地传播病例存在很大的担忧。因此，本研究试图将由本地传播（也称为社区传播）引起的病例与由外部引入的 COVID-19 感染引起的病例区分开来，这对于理解大流行的传播模式至关重要。特别是，我们提供了一种概率视角，从环境角度来估计 COVID-19 疫情中心的疫情规模。首先，本研究提出了一种新颖的解释，用于解释目标城市本地人口中 COVID-19 病例的概率，其中概率链基于独立分布的假设。然后，我们对 COVID-19 的传播进行了空间统计分析，使用两种模型规范来识别空间依赖性，更常见的说法是溢出效应。结果发现存在很强的空间依赖性。最后，它证实了居住垃圾在 COVID-19 传播中的重要性，这表明抗击 COVID-19 需要我们密切关注环境因素。本研究中展示的方法是关键的，具有很高的实用价值，因为它可以很容易地应用于其他地方和未来的其他大流行。
