Predicting direct healthcare costs of general practitioner-guided care in patients with musculoskeletal complaints.

Information on healthcare utilization and costs of general practitioner (GP)-guided care in patients with musculoskeletal complaints is important for keeping healthcare affordable and accessible. A registry-based study was performed to describe healthcare utilization and costs of GP-guided care in patients with musculoskeletal complaints and to predict having higher direct healthcare costs. Healthcare costs of GP-guided care included all healthcare resources used by patients due to a musculoskeletal condition in 2018. Data were extracted from the database with a 1-year follow-up and descriptively analyzed. A general linear model was developed to predict having higher direct healthcare costs. In total, 403,719 patients were included, of whom 92% only received a single consultation. The number of referrals varied across the different types of complaints. Total annual direct healthcare costs amounted to €39,180,531, of which a key cost driver was referrals. Primary care consultations accounted for the largest part of referral-related costs. For all musculoskeletal conditions combined, the mean annual direct healthcare cost per patient was €97 (SEM = €0.18). Older age, being a woman, low socioeconomic status, spine complaints, high number of musculoskeletal diagnoses, and a high comorbidity score were predictive of having higher direct healthcare costs and explained 0.7% of the variance. This study showed that mean annual direct healthcare costs of GP-guided care in patients with musculoskeletal conditions were relatively low and did not differ considerably across conditions. The predictive model explained a negligible part of the variance in costs. Thus, it is unclear which factors do predict high direct healthcare costs in this population.