Institute of Mathematics, University of the Philippines Diliman, Quezon City 1101, Philippines; Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal; BioISI - Biosystems & Integrative Sciences Institute, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal.
Department of Mathematical Sciences, KAIST, Daejeon 34141, Republic of Korea.
J Theor Biol. 2023 Sep 21;573:111596. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2023.111596. Epub 2023 Aug 18.
COVID-19 has affected millions of people worldwide, causing illness and death, and disrupting daily life while imposing a significant social and economic burden. Vaccination is an important control measure that significantly reduces mortality if properly and efficiently distributed. In this work, an age-structured model of COVID-19 transmission, incorporating an unreported infectious compartment, is developed. Three age groups are considered: young (0-19 years), adult (20-64 years), and elderly (65+ years). The transmission rate and reporting rate are determined for each group by utilizing the number of COVID-19 cases in the National Capital Region in the Philippines. Optimal control theory is employed to identify the best vaccine allocation to different age groups. Further, three different vaccination periods are considered to reflect phases of vaccination priority groups: the first, second, and third account for the inoculation of the elderly, adult and elderly, and all three age groups, respectively. This study could guide in making informed decisions in mitigating a population-structured disease transmission under limited resources.
新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）已在全球范围内影响了数百万人，导致发病和死亡，并扰乱了日常生活，同时造成了重大的社会和经济负担。疫苗接种是一种重要的控制措施，如果能够正确和有效地分配，可显著降低死亡率。在这项工作中，我们建立了一个考虑未报告感染期的 COVID-19 传播的年龄结构模型。考虑了三个年龄组：年轻人（0-19 岁）、成年人（20-64 岁）和老年人（65 岁及以上）。通过利用菲律宾首都地区的 COVID-19 病例数，确定了每个群体的传播率和报告率。最优控制理论被用于确定向不同年龄组分配最佳疫苗的方法。此外，还考虑了三个不同的接种期，以反映接种优先群体的不同阶段：第一阶段、第二阶段和第三阶段分别对应老年人、成年人和老年人以及所有三个年龄组的接种。本研究可以为在资源有限的情况下减轻人口结构疾病传播提供决策依据。
