Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, St Mary's Campus, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.
Kenya Medical Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya.
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2023 Oct 9;378(1887):20220273. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2022.0273. Epub 2023 Aug 21.
Human mobility contributes to the spatial dynamics of many infectious diseases, and understanding these dynamics helps us to determine the most effective ways to intervene and plan surveillance. In this paper, we describe a novel transmission model for the spatial dynamics of hookworm, a parasitic worm which is a common infection across sub-Saharan Africa, East Asia and the Pacific islands. We fit our model, with and without mobility, to data obtained from a sub-county in Kenya, and validate the model's predictions against the decline in prevalence observed over the course of a clustered randomized control trial evaluating methods of administering mass chemotherapy. We find that our model which incorporates human mobility is able to reproduce the observed patterns in decline of prevalence during the TUMIKIA trial, and additionally, that the widespread bounce-back of infection may be possible over many years, depending on the rates of people movement between villages. The results have important implications for the design of mass chemotherapy programmes for the elimination of human helminth transmission. This article is part of the theme issue 'Challenges and opportunities in the fight against neglected tropical diseases: a decade from the London Declaration on NTDs'.
人类流动性是许多传染病空间动态的重要因素,了解这些动态有助于我们确定最有效的干预和监测方法。本文描述了一种用于钩虫空间动态的新型传播模型,钩虫是一种在撒哈拉以南非洲、东亚和太平洋岛屿普遍存在的寄生虫感染。我们将包含和不包含流动性的模型拟合到从肯尼亚一个次县获得的数据,并根据在评估大规模化疗方法的一项聚类随机对照试验中观察到的流行率下降来验证模型的预测。我们发现,我们的模型可以复制 TUMIKIA 试验中观察到的流行率下降模式,此外,感染的广泛反弹可能在多年内发生,具体取决于村庄之间的人口流动率。这些结果对大规模化疗根除人类蠕虫传播计划的设计具有重要意义。本文是主题为“应对被忽视的热带病的挑战和机遇:从伦敦被忽视热带病宣言十年回顾”的一部分。