Wan Lingling, Bento Virgílio A, Qu Yanping, Qiu Jianxiu, Song Hongquan, Zhang RongRong, Wu Xiaoping, Xu Feng, Lu Jinkuo, Wang Qianfeng
College of Environmental & Safety Engineering, The Academy of Digital China (Fujian), Fuzhou University, Fuzhou 350116, China.
Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculty of Sciences, University of Lisbon, 1749-016 Lisbon, Portugal.
Sci Total Environ. 2023 Nov 25;901:166362. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166362. Epub 2023 Aug 19.
Drought, a complex phenomenon exacerbated by climate change, is influenced by various climate factors. The escalating global temperatures associated with climate change, impact precipitation patterns and water cycle processes, consequently intensifying the occurrence and severity of droughts. To effectively address and adapt to these challenges, it is crucial to identify the dominant climate factors driving drought events. In this study, we utilized the 1979-2018 Chinese meteorological forcing dataset to calculate the daily Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The Theil-Sen and Mann-Kendall (M-K) tests were employed to analyze the spatial and temporal trends of drought severity and duration. Additionally, partial correlation analysis was conducted to examine the relationship between climate factors (precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET)) and drought characteristic (drought severity and duration). Through this comprehensive analysis, we aimed to identify the primary factors influencing drought severity and duration. The findings revealed the following key results: (1) Over the 40-year period from 1979 to 2018, drought trends in China and its seven climate divisions exhibited an increasing pattern. (2) During drought periods, most regions exhibited a positive correlation between PET and drought severity and duration, while precipitation demonstrated a negative correlation. However, certain areas experiencing severe drought displayed a negative correlation between PET and drought severity and duration, precipitation demonstrated a positive correlation with drought severity and duration. (3) PET emerged as the dominant climatic factor for meteorological drought in the majority of China. These findings contribute valuable insights for policymakers in the development of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. By understanding the dominant climate factors driving drought events, policymakers can implement effective measures to mitigate the adverse socioeconomic and environmental impacts associated with climate change.
干旱是一种因气候变化而加剧的复杂现象，受到多种气候因素的影响。与气候变化相关的全球气温不断上升，影响了降水模式和水循环过程，从而加剧了干旱的发生和严重程度。为了有效应对和适应这些挑战，识别驱动干旱事件的主要气候因素至关重要。在本研究中，我们利用1979 - 2018年中国气象强迫数据集来计算每日标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI）。采用Theil - Sen和Mann - Kendall（M - K）检验来分析干旱严重程度和持续时间的空间和时间趋势。此外，进行了偏相关分析以研究气候因素（降水和潜在蒸散（PET））与干旱特征（干旱严重程度和持续时间）之间的关系。通过这种综合分析，我们旨在确定影响干旱严重程度和持续时间的主要因素。研究结果揭示了以下关键结果：（1）在1979年至2018年的40年期间，中国及其七个气候分区的干旱趋势呈上升模式。（2）在干旱期间，大多数地区的PET与干旱严重程度和持续时间呈正相关，而降水呈负相关。然而，某些遭受严重干旱的地区，PET与干旱严重程度和持续时间呈负相关，降水与干旱严重程度和持续时间呈正相关。（3）PET成为中国大部分地区气象干旱的主导气候因素。这些发现为政策制定者制定气候变化适应和缓解策略提供了有价值的见解。通过了解驱动干旱事件的主要气候因素，政策制定者可以采取有效措施减轻与气候变化相关的不利社会经济和环境影响。
