Department of Social Policy and Intervention, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Nat Hum Behav. 2023 Oct;7(10):1777-1786. doi: 10.1038/s41562-023-01684-9. Epub 2023 Aug 21.
Rising temperatures are expected to stall progress on food insecurity by reducing agricultural yields in the coming decades. But hot periods may also increase food insecurity within days when it gets too hot to work and earn an income, thus limiting households' capability to purchase food. Here I exploit variations in heat levels during a household survey spanning 150 countries in a quasi-natural experiment to show that particularly hot weeks are associated with higher chances of food insecurity among households (0.5767, 95% confidence interval 0.2958-0.8576, t = 4.024, d.f. = 427,816, P < 0.001). This association is mediated by reductions in income and health for households and the effects are stronger in countries with lower incomes and more agricultural or precarious forms of employment. The results highlight the importance of labour market disruptions for food insecurity and suggest integration of these concerns into heat action plans and food programmes.
预计气温上升将通过减少未来几十年的农业产量来阻碍粮食不安全问题的解决。但是,当天气炎热到无法工作和赚取收入时,炎热期也可能在几天内加剧粮食不安全,从而限制家庭购买食物的能力。在这里,我利用在跨越 150 个国家的家庭调查中进行的准自然实验期间的温度变化来表明,特别炎热的几周与家庭粮食不安全的机会增加有关(0.5767,95%置信区间为 0.2958-0.8576,t=4.024,d.f.=427,816,P<0.001)。这种关联是通过家庭收入和健康的减少来介导的,而且在收入较低、农业或不稳定就业形式较多的国家,这些影响更为强烈。研究结果强调了劳动力市场中断对粮食不安全的重要性,并表明应将这些问题纳入高温行动计划和粮食计划。