School of Economics and Management, University of Science and Technology Beijing, 100083, China.
School of Economics and Management, University of Science and Technology Beijing, 100083, China; Institute of Information Technology, High-Tech Research and Development Centre, Kim Il Sung University, Pyongyang, Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
J Environ Manage. 2023 Nov 1;345:118768. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118768. Epub 2023 Aug 22.
Responding to the social, economic, and environmental call to resolve current sustainability challenges, the concern about carbon dioxide emission reduction should be incorporated into the power investment decision process. Reflecting the low carbon emission requirement, this paper proposes a new optimization model for power project portfolio selection that simultaneously considers both of carbon emission trading scheme and carbon tax imposition. In this model, the initial investment outlay, the power sale price, the carbon trading price, and carbon tax rate are treated as uncertain variables considering the fast-changing environment and complex market situation. Incorporating the constraint on whether the carbon quota is exceeded into the model, two investment strategies are proposed for investors. Using the proposed model, the impact of the rises in carbon trading price and carbon tax rate on the investor's investment strategy selection and the carbon emission is simulated and analyzed through a case study. When the expected carbon price is 203.50 RMB/tCO-eq or less, a company should invest based on the strategy that annual emissions exceed the quota to obtain a maximum expected NPV which is larger than 408588 million RMB. When future carbon prices are 352.00, 500.50 and 649.00 RMB/tCO-eq, the government should impose carbon tax rates of 30, 30, and 40 RMB/tCO on a power company, respectively, to obtain carbon emission reduction effect. At last, to see the contrast effect of the results from simultaneous implementation of both carbon trading and carbon tax, the results considering the carbon trading alone or carbon tax alone are discussed, respectively.
为响应解决当前可持续发展挑战的社会、经济和环境号召，应将减少二氧化碳排放的问题纳入电力投资决策过程。为了反映低碳排放的要求，本文提出了一种新的电力项目组合选择优化模型，同时考虑了碳排放交易计划和征收碳税。在该模型中，初始投资支出、电力销售价格、碳交易价格和碳税率被视为不确定变量，以考虑快速变化的环境和复杂的市场情况。通过将是否超过碳配额的约束纳入模型，为投资者提出了两种投资策略。利用所提出的模型，通过案例研究模拟和分析了碳交易价格和碳税率的上升对投资者投资策略选择和碳排放的影响。当预期碳价格低于 203.50 元/吨二氧化碳时，公司应根据每年排放超过配额的策略进行投资，以获得大于 408588 万元的最大预期净现值。当未来碳价格分别为 352.00、500.50 和 649.00 元/吨二氧化碳时，政府应分别对一家电力公司征收 30、30 和 40 元/吨二氧化碳的碳税，以获得减排效果。最后，为了看到同时实施碳交易和碳税的结果的对比效果，分别讨论了仅考虑碳交易或仅考虑碳税的结果。
