Samanta Sourav, Hazra Sugata, French Jon R, Nicholls Robert J, Mondal Partho P
School of Oceanographic Studies, Jadavpur University, 188 Raja S. C. Mullick Road, Kolkata 700032, West Bengal, India.
Coastal and Estuarine Research Unit, UCL Department of Geography, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, UK.
Sci Total Environ. 2023 Dec 10;903:166624. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166624. Epub 2023 Aug 27.
In this paper we conduct exploratory simulations of the possible evolution of the Indian Sundarbans mangroves to 2100 under a range of future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios, considering the effects of both inundation and shoreline erosion. The Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) is used to simulate habitat transitions due to inundation and these outputs are combined with an empirical model of SLR-driven shoreline erosion. A set of plausible climate-induced SLR scenarios are considered, together with delta subsidence and constrained vertical sediment accretion. Significant mangrove decline is found in all cases: the greater the rise in sea level the greater the losses. By the end of the century, the Indian Sundarbans mangroves could lose between 42 % and 80 % of their current area if current management is continued. Managed realignment could offset these losses but at the expense of productive land and the migration of the human population.
在本文中，我们针对印度孙德尔本斯红树林在一系列未来海平面上升（SLR）情景下到2100年可能的演变情况进行了探索性模拟，同时考虑了淹没和海岸线侵蚀的影响。海平面影响沼泽模型（SLAMM）用于模拟因淹没导致的栖息地转变，这些输出结果与一个由海平面上升驱动的海岸线侵蚀经验模型相结合。我们考虑了一系列合理的由气候引起的海平面上升情景，以及三角洲沉降和受限的垂直沉积物堆积情况。在所有情况下都发现红树林显著减少：海平面上升幅度越大，损失就越大。到本世纪末，如果继续当前的管理方式，印度孙德尔本斯红树林可能会失去其当前面积的42%至80%。有计划的海岸调整可以抵消这些损失，但代价是生产性土地和人口迁移。
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