Wright C J
Surgery. 1986 Oct;100(4):594-8.
The data on screening for breast cancer were studied to extract information on rates of biopsy recommendation, detection of benign disease, and mortality. Relative and absolute mortality rates for breast cancer and other causes were calculated. Approximately 5% of women screened have a suspicious result and are referred for further assessment. The reduction in breast cancer mortality rates attributed to screening procedures ranges from 0.049% to 0.144% of the screened population, demonstrating that up to 2041 women must be screened for each woman who will benefit. If women subjected to operation for benign disease are considered to be harmed by the screening program, then the harm/benefit ratio ranges up to 62:1. It is suggested that enough information on the question of cost/harm/benefit is already available to make the decision that mass screening for breast cancer should be abandoned and that the procedure should be reserved for those women with high-risk factors.
对乳腺癌筛查数据进行了研究,以提取活检建议率、良性疾病检出率和死亡率等信息。计算了乳腺癌及其他病因的相对和绝对死亡率。约5%接受筛查的女性有可疑结果并被转诊作进一步评估。筛查程序所致乳腺癌死亡率的降低幅度为筛查人群的0.049%至0.144%,这表明每有一名受益女性,就必须对多达2041名女性进行筛查。如果将因良性疾病接受手术的女性视为筛查计划的受害者,那么危害/受益比高达62:1。有人建议,关于成本/危害/受益问题的信息已足够,可据此作出决定:应放弃乳腺癌大规模筛查,该程序应仅适用于有高危因素的女性。