Department of Digital Trade, Hangzhou Wanxiang Polytechnic, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China.
PLoS One. 2023 Sep 1;18(9):e0290897. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0290897. eCollection 2023.
The objective of this study was to identify factors influencing the development of China-ASEAN trade- from the total economic volume of both sides, distance, the population size of ASEAN countries, the construction of a free trade area, and the signing of the Belt and Road initiative, resource endowment per capita, the exchange rate between RMB and ASEAN countries, and the land area of ASEAN countries-to develop a conceptual framework for China-ASEAN trade potential.
This study uses panel data from 2001 to 2021 that is evenly distributed among 10 ASEAN countries to serve as the dataset. Firstly, the unit roots are checked and the cointegration relationships are examined, focusing on the heterogeneity test. Based on the classical trade gravity model, the innovative trade gravity model with key influencing factors is constructed. On the basis of the classical trade gravity model, an innovative trade gravity model of key influencing factors is constructed. The trade potential model is used to calculate the direct trade potential coefficient between China and ASEAN countries, which points out the direction for the sustainability of bilateral trade.
This study finds that among the factors affecting China-ASEAN bilateral trade, the total economic output of both sides, distance, population size of ASEAN countries, the construction of the FTA, and the signing of the Belt and Road Initiative all have a positive impact on bilateral trade. Three influencing factors, namely per capita resource endowment, exchange rate between RMB and ASEAN countries, and the size of ASEAN countries, have a negative impact on bilateral trade, but to a lesser extent. The trade potential between China and Vietnam falls into the category of potential re-modelling, indicating that both sides are currently utilizing their trade potential to the greatest extent possible, that trade growth space is limited, and that new trade opportunities must be discovered. The trade potential index between China and nine ASEAN countries, excluding Vietnam, is in the potential-exploiting category, indicating that the potential has not been fully utilized by both sides and that there is still room for growth in the scale of trade between the two countries.
With the shift of the world's economic center of gravity in the direction of Asia following COVID-19, China and ASEAN countries should seize the opportunity to strengthen their comprehensive strength and economic aggregates and further develop China's constructive role in the regional organization. The signing of the Belt and Road Initiative and the construction of a free trade zone has had a positive effect on the development of bilateral trade. Propose that: positive trade factors should continue to be strengthened, trade barriers should be removed, and new dynamics of bilateral trade growth should be enhanced.
本研究旨在从双方的总体经济规模、距离、东盟国家人口规模、自由贸易区建设、“一带一路”倡议签署、人均资源禀赋、人民币与东盟国家汇率以及东盟国家土地面积等方面，确定影响中国与东盟贸易发展的因素，构建中国与东盟贸易潜力的概念框架。
本研究使用 2001 年至 2021 年期间均匀分布在 10 个东盟国家的面板数据作为数据集。首先，检查单位根并检验协整关系，重点进行异质性检验。在经典贸易引力模型的基础上，构建了具有关键影响因素的创新贸易引力模型。在经典贸易引力模型的基础上，构建了具有关键影响因素的创新贸易引力模型。利用贸易潜力模型计算中国与东盟国家之间的直接贸易潜力系数，为双边贸易的可持续性指明方向。
本研究发现，在影响中国与东盟双边贸易的因素中，双方的总体经济产出、距离、东盟国家的人口规模、自由贸易区的建设以及“一带一路”倡议的签署均对双边贸易产生了积极影响。人均资源禀赋、人民币与东盟国家汇率以及东盟国家规模等三个影响因素对双边贸易产生了负面影响，但程度较小。中国与越南之间的贸易潜力属于潜在的重新调整类别，表明双方目前正在最大限度地利用其贸易潜力，贸易增长空间有限，必须发现新的贸易机会。中国与除越南以外的九个东盟国家之间的贸易潜力指数属于潜力开发类别，表明双方的潜力尚未得到充分利用，两国之间的贸易规模仍有增长空间。
随着 COVID-19 后世界经济重心向亚洲转移，中国和东盟国家应抓住机遇，加强综合实力和经济总量，进一步发挥中国在区域组织中的建设性作用。“一带一路”倡议的签署和自由贸易区的建设对双边贸易的发展产生了积极影响。建议：继续加强积极的贸易因素，消除贸易壁垒，增强双边贸易增长的新动力。
