The Evolution of Models in Historical Demography.

This reflection on the evolution of methods and data in historical demography argues that we can still find inspiration and guidance in the work of the founders of our discipline. Historical demography is in the midst of a transition from a data-poor to a data-rich environment. Previous generations relied on demographic models to squeeze as much information as possible from the small amounts of data available. Today we live in a new era of large data sets and regression models. Researchers are creating both regional and international historical data sets of unprecedented size and depth. When examined closely, however, the methods that we use now make the same simplifying assumptions that generated the key advances of earlier generations. As we transition to new methods, demographic insight must inform our analyses and enrich our conclusions.