Reher David Sven, Sandström Glenn, Sanz-Gimeno Alberto, van Poppel Frans W A
Grupo de Estudios Población y Sociedad (GEPS), Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain.
Department of Historical, Philosophical and Religious Studies and the Centre for Demographic and Ageing Research (CEDAR), Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden.
Demography. 2017 Feb;54(1):3-22. doi: 10.1007/s13524-016-0536-0.
We use a set of linked reproductive histories taken from Sweden, the Netherlands, and Spain for the period 1871-1960 to address key issues regarding how reproductive change was linked specifically to mortality and survivorship and more generally to individual agency. Using event-history analysis, this study investigates how the propensity to have additional children was influenced by the number of surviving offspring when reproductive decisions were made. The results suggest that couples were continuously regulating their fertility to achieve reproductive goals. Families experiencing child fatalities show significant increases in the hazard of additional births. In addition, the sex composition of the surviving sibset also appears to have influenced reproductive decisions in a significant but changing way. The findings offer strong proof of active decision-making during the demographic transition and provide an important contribution to the literature on the role of mortality for reproductive change.
我们使用了一组取自瑞典、荷兰和西班牙的1871年至1960年期间的关联生育史,以解决有关生育变化如何具体与死亡率和生存率相关联,以及更广泛地与个体能动性相关联的关键问题。本研究采用事件史分析方法,调查了在做出生育决策时,存活后代数量如何影响生育更多子女的倾向。结果表明,夫妻一直在调整他们的生育行为以实现生育目标。经历过子女死亡的家庭,再次生育的风险显著增加。此外,存活同胞组合的性别构成似乎也以一种显著但不断变化的方式影响了生育决策。这些发现为人口转变过程中的积极决策提供了有力证据,并为关于死亡率在生育变化中作用的文献做出了重要贡献。