NOAA, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, Environmental Research Division, Monterey, CA, USA.
Institute of Marine Science, UC Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, USA.
Nat Commun. 2023 Sep 5;14(1):5188. doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-40849-y.
Marine heatwaves cause widespread environmental, biological, and socio-economic impacts, placing them at the forefront of 21st-century management challenges. However, heatwaves vary in intensity and evolution, and a paucity of information on how this variability impacts marine species limits our ability to proactively manage for these extreme events. Here, we model the effects of four recent heatwaves (2014, 2015, 2019, 2020) in the Northeastern Pacific on the distributions of 14 top predator species of ecological, cultural, and commercial importance. Predicted responses were highly variable across species and heatwaves, ranging from near total loss of habitat to a two-fold increase. Heatwaves rapidly altered political bio-geographies, with up to 10% of predicted habitat across all species shifting jurisdictions during individual heatwaves. The variability in predicted responses across species and heatwaves portends the need for novel management solutions that can rapidly respond to extreme climate events. As proof-of-concept, we developed an operational dynamic ocean management tool that predicts predator distributions and responses to extreme conditions in near real-time.
海洋热浪导致广泛的环境、生物和社会经济影响，使它们成为 21 世纪管理挑战的前沿。然而，热浪的强度和演变方式各不相同，由于缺乏有关这种可变性如何影响海洋物种的信息，限制了我们主动应对这些极端事件的能力。在这里，我们模拟了东北太平洋最近四次热浪（2014 年、2015 年、2019 年和 2020 年）对 14 种具有生态、文化和商业重要性的顶级捕食者物种分布的影响。预测的反应在物种和热浪之间差异很大，从近完全丧失栖息地到增加两倍不等。热浪迅速改变了政治生物地理，在单个热浪期间，多达 10%的预测栖息地跨越了所有物种的管辖范围。不同物种和热浪之间预测反应的可变性预示着需要新的管理解决方案，以便能够快速应对极端气候事件。作为概念验证，我们开发了一种实用的动态海洋管理工具，可近乎实时地预测捕食者的分布和对极端条件的反应。
