Goyal Manish Kumar, Singh Shivam, Jain Vijay
Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Indore, Indore, India.
Sci Rep. 2023 Sep 7;13(1):14786. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-41968-8.
Indian cities have frequently observed intense and severe heat waves for the last few years. It will be primarily due to a significant increase in the variation in heat wave characteristics like duration, frequency, and intensity across the urban regions of India. This study will determine the impact of future climate scenarios like SSP 245 and 585 over the heat wave characteristics. It will present the comparison between heat waves characteristics in the historical time (1981 to 2020) with future projections, i.e., D (2021-2046), D (2047-2072), and D (2073-2098) for different climate scenarios across Indian smart cities. It is observed that the Coastal, Interior Peninsular, and North-Central regions will observe intense and frequent heat waves in the future under SSP 245 and 585 scenarios. A nearly two-fold increase in heat wave' mean duration will be observed in the smart cities of the Interior Peninsular, Coastal, and North Central zones. Thiruvananthapuram city on the west coast has the maximum hazard associated with heat waves among all the smart cities of India under both SSPs. This study assists smart city policymakers in improving the planning and implementation of heat wave adaptation and mitigation plans based on the proposed framework for heat action plans and heat wave characteristics for improving urban health well-being under hot weather extremes in different homogeneous temperature zones.
在过去几年中,印度各城市经常出现强烈且严重的热浪。这主要是由于印度城市地区热浪特征(如持续时间、频率和强度)的变化显著增加。本研究将确定未来气候情景(如SSP 245和585)对热浪特征的影响。它将呈现历史时期(1981年至2020年)与未来预测(即不同气候情景下印度智慧城市的D(2021 - 2046年)、D(2047 - 2072年)和D(2073 - 2098年))之间的热浪特征比较。研究发现,在SSP 245和585情景下,沿海、半岛内陆和中北部地区未来将出现强烈且频繁的热浪。半岛内陆、沿海和中北部地区的智慧城市中,热浪的平均持续时间将增加近两倍。在这两种SSP情景下,西海岸的 Thiruvananthapuram 市在印度所有智慧城市中与热浪相关的危害最大。本研究有助于智慧城市政策制定者根据拟议的热行动计划框架和热浪特征,改进热浪适应和缓解计划的规划与实施,以在不同均匀温度区的极端炎热天气下改善城市居民的健康福祉。