Institute of Applied System Analysis, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang, 212013, Jiangsu, China.
School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xidian University, Xi'an, 710126, China.
Bull Math Biol. 2023 Sep 7;85(10):97. doi: 10.1007/s11538-023-01202-y.
Several safe and effective vaccines are available to prevent individuals from experiencing severe illness or death as a result of COVID-19. Widespread vaccination is widely regarded as a critical tool in the fight against the disease. However, some individuals may choose not to vaccinate due to vaccine hesitancy or other medical conditions. In some sectors, regular compulsory testing is required for such unvaccinated individuals. Interestingly, different sectors require testing at various frequencies, such as weekly or biweekly. As a result, it is essential to determine the optimal testing frequency and identify underlying factors. This study proposes a population-based model that can accommodate different personal decision choices, such as getting vaccinated or undergoing regular tests, as well as vaccine efficacies and uncertainties in epidemic transmission. The model, formulated as impulsive differential equations, uses time instants to represent the reporting date for the test result of an unvaccinated individual. By employing well-accepted indices to measure transmission risk, including the basic reproduction number, the peak time, the final size, and the number of severe infections, the study shows that an optimal testing frequency is highly sensitive to parameters involved in the transmission process, such as vaccine efficacy, disease transmission rate, test accuracy, and existing vaccination coverage. The testing frequency should be appropriately designed with the consideration of all these factors, as well as the control objectives measured by epidemiological quantities of great concern.
有几种安全有效的疫苗可用于预防 COVID-19 导致的严重疾病或死亡。广泛接种疫苗被广泛认为是对抗该疾病的重要工具。然而，由于疫苗犹豫或其他医疗条件，一些人可能选择不接种疫苗。在某些行业，对于未接种疫苗的人，需要定期进行强制性检测。有趣的是，不同的行业要求的检测频率不同，例如每周或每两周一次。因此，确定最佳检测频率并确定潜在因素至关重要。本研究提出了一种基于人群的模型，可以适应不同的个人决策选择，例如接种疫苗或定期进行检测，以及疫苗的功效和流行病传播的不确定性。该模型以脉冲微分方程的形式表示，使用时间点来表示未接种疫苗个体的检测结果报告日期。通过使用公认的指标来衡量传播风险，包括基本繁殖数、峰值时间、最终规模和严重感染人数，研究表明，最佳检测频率对传播过程中涉及的参数高度敏感，例如疫苗功效、疾病传播率、检测准确性和现有的疫苗接种率。应该综合考虑所有这些因素以及通过流行病学数量来衡量的关注控制目标，来适当设计检测频率。
