Schmidt Sonja Verena, Drysch Marius, Reinkemeier Felix, Wagner Johannes Maximilian, Sogorski Alexander, Macedo Santos Elisabete, Zahn Peter, Lehnhardt Marcus, Behr Björn, Registry German Burn, Puscz Flemming, Wallner Christoph
Department of Plastic Surgery, BG University Hospital Bergmannsheil, Ruhr University Bochum, 44789 Bochum, Germany.
Department of Anesthesiology, BG University Hospital Bergmannsheil, Ruhr University Bochum, 44789 Bochum, Germany.
Healthcare (Basel). 2023 Aug 31;11(17):2437. doi: 10.3390/healthcare11172437.
The mortality of severely burned patients can be predicted by multiple scores which have been created over the last decades. As the treatment of burn injuries and intensive care management have improved immensely over the last years, former prediction scores seem to be losing accuracy in predicting survival. Therefore, various modifications of existing scores have been established and innovative scores have been introduced. In this study, we used data from the German Burn Registry and analyzed them regarding patient mortality using different methods of machine learning. We used Classification and Regression Trees (CARTs), random forests, XGBoost, and logistic regression regarding predictive features for patient mortality. Analyzing the data of 1401 patients via machine learning, the factors of full-thickness burns, patient's age, and total burned surface area could be identified as the most important features regarding the prediction of patient mortality following burn trauma. Although the different methods identified similar aspects, application of machine learning shows that more data are necessary for a valid analysis. In the future, the usage of machine learning can contribute to the development of an innovative and precise predictive score in burn medicine and even to further interpretations of relevant data regarding different forms of outcome from the German Burn registry.
严重烧伤患者的死亡率可以通过过去几十年创建的多个评分系统来预测。由于在过去几年中烧伤治疗和重症监护管理有了极大改善,以前的预测评分在预测生存率方面似乎正失去准确性。因此,对现有评分进行了各种修改,并引入了创新评分。在本研究中,我们使用了德国烧伤登记处的数据,并使用不同的机器学习方法对患者死亡率进行了分析。我们使用分类与回归树(CART)、随机森林、XGBoost和逻辑回归来分析患者死亡率的预测特征。通过机器学习分析1401例患者的数据,全层烧伤、患者年龄和烧伤总面积等因素可被确定为烧伤创伤后患者死亡率预测的最重要特征。尽管不同方法识别出了相似的方面,但机器学习的应用表明,进行有效分析需要更多数据。未来,机器学习的使用有助于烧伤医学中创新且精确的预测评分的开发,甚至有助于对德国烧伤登记处不同形式结果的相关数据进行进一步解读。