Korea Environment Institute, 370 Sicheong-Daero, Sejong, 30147, Republic of Korea.
Sci Rep. 2023 Sep 9;13(1):14880. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-41880-1.
The number of non-accidental deaths and heat-related illnesses due to the co-occurrence of heatwaves and COVID-19 has been identified to estimate compound health impacts between two risks. We have analyzed data from historical years (2013-2019) to calculate the baseline values of the number of non-accidental deaths and heat-related illness patients from May to September using a quasi-Poisson generalized linear model and compared them to data from 2020 in Korea. We also assessed the relative risk and absolute cumulative number of non-accidental deaths and heat-related illnesses in the summer of 2020 in Seoul, Daegu, and Gyeongnam region of Korea. In the Summer of 2020, Korea experienced 0.8% of non-accidental excess deaths, with the highest in August, and 46% of reduction was observed in heat-related throughout the study period, except in Daegu, where excess of heat-related illness occurred in August. The relative risk (RR) of non-accidental deaths at 33.1 °C, was 1.00 (CI 0.99-1.01) and 1.04 (CI 1.02-1.07) in 2013-2019 and 2020, respectively. The RR of heat-related illness at 33.1 °C, was 1.44 (CI 1.42-1.45) and 1.59 (CI 1.54-1.64) in 2013-2019 and 2020, respectively. The absolute cumulative trends of non-accidental deaths and heat-related illnesses were similar in the three regions, indicating increased non-accidental deaths and decreased heat-related illnesses at similar temperatures in 2020. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the fear of infection by the virus and the limited access to healthcare services led to changes in health-seeking behaviors. These results indicate social distancing could have had adverse impacts on other health conditions. A comprehensive health risk assessment is important when facing simultaneous risks, such as heatwaves and pandemics, in the implementation of effective countermeasures.
已经确定了由于热浪和 COVID-19 的共同发生而导致的非意外死亡和与热相关的疾病的数量，以估计两种风险之间的复合健康影响。我们使用拟泊松广义线性模型分析了历史年份（2013-2019 年）的数据，以计算 5 月至 9 月非意外死亡和与热相关疾病患者的基线数量，并将其与 2020 年韩国的数据进行了比较。我们还评估了 2020 年韩国首尔、大邱和庆尚南道夏季非意外死亡和与热相关疾病的相对风险和绝对累积数量。在 2020 年夏季，韩国经历了 0.8%的非意外死亡人数超额，其中 8 月最高，整个研究期间，与热相关的疾病减少了 46%，除了大邱，8 月与热相关的疾病出现了超额。在 33.1°C 时，非意外死亡的相对风险（RR）分别为 2013-2019 年和 2020 年的 1.00（99%CI 1.00-1.01）和 1.04（99%CI 1.02-1.07）。在 33.1°C 时，与热相关的疾病的 RR 分别为 2013-2019 年和 2020 年的 1.44（99%CI 1.42-1.45）和 1.59（99%CI 1.54-1.64）。三个地区的非意外死亡和与热相关的疾病的绝对累积趋势相似，表明 2020 年在相似温度下，非意外死亡增加，与热相关的疾病减少。在 COVID-19 大流行期间，对病毒感染的恐惧和有限的医疗服务获取导致了寻求医疗保健行为的改变。这些结果表明，社交距离可能对其他健康状况产生了不利影响。在实施有效对策时，当面临热浪和大流行等同时存在的风险时，进行全面的健康风险评估非常重要。
