School of Finance, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, Wuhan, Hubei, China.
China Minsheng Bank Wuhan Branch, Wuhan, Hubei, China.
PLoS One. 2023 Sep 13;18(9):e0291317. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0291317. eCollection 2023.
We analyse the regional effects of China's monetary policy during the economic transition period based on the city classification system under the New Normal. Using panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) models, we examine the differences in the influence of a unified monetary policy on four types of Chinese cities: first-tier, quasi-first-tier, second-tier, and third-tier cities, from perspective of economic output. Based on a comparative analysis of the results of impulse response function and variance decomposition, we conclude that whether for quantitative monetary policy or price-based monetary policy, the degree to which economic growth responds to the unified monetary policy varies across the four types of cities in the short and long terms. With reference to China's economic transition under the New Normal, in the short term, this phenomenon probably relate to the varying degrees of financial marketization among the four city types; in the long run, this phenomenon may be attributed to the difference in the progress of industrial upgrading of these urban areas. Based on the analysis above, we suggest policy implications for Chinese cities based on the structural monetary policy, industrial upgrading, and market-oriented financial sector reforms.
我们基于新常态下的城市分类体系,分析中国经济转型期货币政策的区域效应。利用面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型,从经济产出的角度,检验了统一货币政策对中国四类城市(一线城市、准一线城市、二线城市和三线城市)的影响差异。基于脉冲响应函数和方差分解结果的比较分析,我们得出结论,无论是数量型货币政策还是价格型货币政策,四类城市的经济增长对统一货币政策的短期和长期响应程度都存在差异。参照中国新常态下的经济转型,短期内,这种现象可能与四类城市金融市场化程度的不同有关;从长期来看,这种现象可能归因于这些城市地区产业升级进度的差异。基于以上分析,我们建议根据结构性货币政策、产业升级和市场化金融部门改革,为中国城市制定政策建议。